Can Iranian missiles change the course of the conflict? – L’Express

The singular buzzing of Iranian drones that has been regularly resounding over Ukrainian cities for more than two years could soon be joined by the much more deafening noise of ballistic missiles produced by Tehran. Four days after the information was leaked to the Anglo-Saxon press, Washington and its allies confirmed on September 10 that Iran had delivered Fath-360 missiles to Russia to support its war against Ukraine. To date, more than 200 systems of this type are said to have been transported in early September via the Caspian Sea.

A short-range ballistic missile, the Fath-360 can strike at a distance of 120 kilometers and reach a speed of more than 4,900 km/h on impact. Thanks to its 150 kg explosive charge, it is capable of destroying a wide range of targets. “The characteristics of the Fath-360 are relatively similar to those of the American Himars or the Russian Tornado-S, explains Farzin Nadimi, a researcher at the Washington Institute and specialist in Iranian defense issues. The vehicle that serves as its launcher can carry up to six missiles and fire them at a rate of one every ten seconds.” Enough to further increase Moscow’s firepower, at a time when its troops are continuing their offensives in eastern Ukraine, at the cost of heavy losses.

Above all, this delivery makes it possible to replenish a Russian arsenal that has been severely tested by more than two years of war and extensive use of its drones, missiles and gliding bombs to strike Ukrainian territory. In a report published at the end of August, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armies, Oleksandr Syrsky, revealed that Russia had used no fewer than 9,627 missiles and 13,997 drones since the start of the war in February 2022. “These Iranian missiles do not really have any additional capabilities compared to those already available to the Russians, but they will constitute an interesting additional mass for them, notes Fabian Hinz, researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and arms specialist. It is likely that the Russians bought them because they do not have sufficient production capacities to cover all their needs.” Last December, North Korea had already supplied several dozen Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles to Moscow to support its war effort.

Fears for Ukrainian civilians

A few months later, in April, Ukrainian intelligence services estimated that Russia was able to produce around forty Iskander ballistic missiles each month, in addition to around forty Kh-101 cruise missiles and a few dozen Kalibr multirole and Kinzhal hypersonic systems. Beyond the quantitative aspect, the arrival of Iranian missiles could help the Russian army to optimize the use of its own missiles. “Iskander missiles have the capacity to strike in depth, but the Russians sometimes use them against targets relatively close to the front, notes Fabian Hinz of the IISS. If they had many Iranian short-range missiles tomorrow, this could allow them to reserve their own systems for targets located deeper.” And thus increase the threat to the Ukrainian rear.

These new weapons raise fears of an intensification of the terror campaign against civilians. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on September 10 that he expected these missiles to be used “in the coming weeks in Ukraine against Ukrainians.” With their range of 120 kilometers, they could reach many cities in northern and eastern Ukraine, such as Sumy and Kharkiv, the country’s second largest, or Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk, two strongholds in the Donetsk region. The toll in September has already been particularly bloody. On the 3rd, a strike against a military institute and a hospital in Poltava, in central Ukraine, killed 58 people and injured more than 300 others, while a second the next day in Lviv, in the West, left seven dead and around thirty injured.

As autumn approaches and temperatures drop, there is also concern about Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with nearly 60 percent of its electricity production having been destroyed. “One danger is that the delivery of these missiles could pave the way for Russia to buy their Iranian ‘big brothers’, such as the BM-300, Zoheir and Zolfaghar, which have a range of 300, 500 and 700 kilometers respectively,” says Farzin Nadimi of the Washington Institute. “They could then pose a serious threat to Ukraine’s infrastructure.”

Lack of anti-aircraft defenses

First, the use of the Fath-360s on the battlefield could complicate the protection of Ukrainian skies – while kyiv’s forces have been warning for months about their lack of anti-aircraft defenses. At the last summit of the contact group for the defense of Ukraine in Ramstein on September 6, Volodymyr Zelensky had insisted on the “significant” number of anti-aircraft defense systems “that have not yet been delivered” despite the announcements. “Interception systems are often more expensive than the missiles sent by the adversary, and it can be difficult to have sufficient means of defense, underlines Emmanuelle Maitre, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS). The delivery of these Iranian missiles can only aggravate the problem facing the Ukrainians and could force them to make difficult choices on the threats that they will decide, or not, to intercept as a priority.”

The situation is likely to become even more complicated given that kyiv’s interception rate for ballistic missiles is much lower than that of drones – including the Iranian Shahed-136, which Moscow uses massively. According to data shared at the end of August by the Ukrainian general staff, 63% of drones launched by Russian forces since the start of the conflict have been destroyed in flight, compared to only 4.5% of ballistic missiles. This is a strong argument in favor of using Iranian missiles. According to estimates, Tehran currently has the largest arsenal in the Middle East, with more than 3,000 devices to its name. “The Iranians have expanded several missile production sites in recent years,” notes Fabian Hinz. “They would therefore potentially be able to supply a large number of them if the Russians request them.” In July, satellite images revealed major expansions of two Iranian ballistic missile facilities, at the Modarres military base and the Khojir missile production site, not far from Tehran.

Faced with this new threat, Washington and its allies announced on September 10 sanctions against six Iranian companies involved in the production of drones and ballistic missiles, as well as economic sanctions against the airline Iran Air. For its part, kyiv is especially hoping for a lifting of restrictions preventing it from using Western long-range missiles against military targets located deep in Russian soil, and used as bases to launch air raids against Ukraine. Could the delivery of Iranian Fath-360s encourage the West, divided on the issue, to change course? Questioned on September 10, Joe Biden indicated that he was “working on it”.