To win the American presidential election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have every interest in asserting themselves in the “swing states”, those states with generally close results.
Less than two months before the American presidential election, the fight is raging between the two candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. At the national level, it is the Democrat who is in the lead on September 11 with 47.1% of voting intentions against 44.4% for the Republican, according to the latest studies compiled by the site FiveThirtyEight. The site 270towin estimates Kamala Harris’ chances of winning at 48.1% against 47.2% for Donald Trump. However, the most important results in the American presidential election are those by state. And the latest polls are very tight.
Indeed, according to the American voting system, each state won guarantees a certain number of votes out of the 538 electors who vote to elect the American president. Most of the 50 states are won over to a political party, but the “swing states”, 7 uncertain states, swing to the right or left depending on the polls. The latter (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina) must be won to ensure access to the White House. And this year, the polls are extremely tight in the main swing states, according to 270towin’s compilation.
Wisconsin (10 electors out of 270): Harris 49% – Trump 46%
While Wisconsin is presented as a Democratic stronghold, it was narrowly won by Donald Trump in 2016, before being reclaimed by Joe Biden four years later, notably thanks to the vote in the suburbs and among women, a sign of its strategic importance in the American presidential election. As a reminder, the Republican convention in July 2024 took place in Wisconsin, and the Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris held her first campaign rally there, in Chicago, as if to try to consolidate the Democrats’ hold on the state. The vote could actually swing depending on the vote of the 180,000 unregistered Latino voters. The candidate who manages to convince them should win the day in the state.
Michigan(15 electors out of 270): Harris 48% – Trump 45%
This Midwestern state had long voted for a Democratic candidate, until the arrival on the political scene of Donald Trump. In 2016, the Republican swept the board and won the 15 electors of this industrial state. The Democrats regained control in 2020, but the result should be extremely close this year. With a large Arab-American community, Joe Biden’s clear support for Israel could prove to be detrimental. Without going to the Republicans, this vote could be lacking for the Democrats to win. The student and progressive youth also represent a major stake in the vote, they could abstain, still in protest at the United States’ support for Benjamin Netanyahu. Will the change of candidate and Kamala Harris’ slightly firmer positions on Israel tip the balance in favor of the Democratic camp and encourage the undecided to go and vote? Hard to say.
Pennsylvania(19 electors out of 270): Harris 47% – Trump 46%
While a triumph in Pennsylvania is no guarantee of final victory, it certainly puts us on the right track. Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020… Which side will Pennsylvania lean towards in 2024? The fifth most populous state in the country will allow the winning candidate to win no fewer than 19 electors. A state in which one in eight residents is food insecure. And the Democrats could well start with a slight advantage: Joe Biden, the former presidential candidate, grew up in the working-class city of Scranton, Pennsylvania. An asset that the latter, including Kamala Harris, should highlight. For his part, Donald Trump is sparing no effort in this state, particularly by targeting rural and working-class regions.
Georgia(16 electors out of 270): Harris 47% – Trump 48%
After 30 years of Republican voting, Georgia swung to the Democrats in 2020 by 11,800 votes, or 0.23 points. A vote that, like this year, will be largely determined by the political color of the city of Atlanta. With its suburbs, it represents half of the state’s population. The African-American populations (30% of the state’s population) are now larger in this state, particularly in the suburbs. A notable development that has pushed the rather Republican legislature of this state to adopt several laws related to the exercise of the right to vote. Controversial laws signed without debate by Governor Brian Kemp that put a spoke in the wheels of Georgia’s administrators. The fight is likely to be tough to win the state’s 16 electors.
Florida (30 electors out of 270): Harris 45% – Trump 49%
Has Florida become a Republican stronghold, and no longer really a swing state? On closer inspection, this statement is not completely false. Less than two months before the American presidential election, Donald Trump seems to be widening his first gap in the latest polls. The American real estate tycoon won the state in the last two elections, in 2016 and 2020. The “strategic” state that Florida was in the early 2000s therefore seems to have changed status. A new trend that can be explained by demographic reasons. Indeed, recently, Florida has observed the arrival of a rather elderly population, over 65 years old, which now represents more than 21% of the state’s total population. This rather wealthy socio-professional category and its vote, mostly Republican, can help explain the latest polls in this state which awards 30 electors to whoever wins it.
Arizona(11 electors out of 270): Harris 46% – Trump 48%
In 2020, Joe Biden won with only 0.3 points ahead of Donald Trump in this state generally won over to the Republican cause. With an exploding and diverse population, it has increased sevenfold in sixty years, Arizona is an extremely complex state in which the issues of immigration and abortion are burning. During Joe Biden’s term, the crossing of migrants at the border reached record levels, a perfect communication channel for Donald Trump, considering carrying out “the largest deportation operation” in the history of the United States, if he were to be elected to the White House, as he declared during his debate against Kamala Harris on Tuesday, September 10. Regarding abortion, the Republicans failed to reinstate an 1864 law to completely ban abortion in the state. Abortion could therefore be the tipping point of the vote in this Sun Belt state. While Arizona’s legislature is mostly Republican, the governor is Democrat. So the match should be more than tight between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to win the stakes and the 11 electors of this state.
North Carolina(16 electors out of 270): Harris 47% – Trump 47%
If Donald Trump was widely expected to win in this state at the beginning of the year, Joe Biden’s withdrawal and Kamala Harris’ candidacy have completely reshuffled the cards and given new hope to the Democratic camp. If the gap between the two candidates is expected to be tiny, the task will still be difficult for the Vice President of the United States in a state that has only elected a Democrat twice in the last fifty years, including Barack Obama in 2008. In addition, there are more Republicans registered on the electoral rolls in North Carolina. On the other hand, Kamala Harris is banking on a new strong presence in the state by opening 20 offices and recruiting 10,000 volunteers. The rural communities of the state are also targeted by the Democrats, after having been abandoned in the hands of the Republicans. This pool – residing in a rural area – represents more than 3 million people. In other words, if one side were to swing to the Democratic camp, North Carolina could give its support to Kamala Harris.