An advantaged candidate? The duel that can change everything

An advantaged candidate The duel that can change everything

On Tuesday, September 10, Kamala Harris will face her presidential opponent, Donald Trump, for the first time, and perhaps the last, in a decisive debate two months before the American presidential election.

This duel could prove decisive. Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump will face off this Tuesday, September 10 at 9 p.m. (3 a.m., French time) during a televised debate. The person who wins could very well come out ahead for the rest of the American presidential campaign. The outcome of this debate could even change everything.

As proof: the last duel between two candidates in the American presidential election led one of them to withdraw completely. It was after Joe Biden’s performance, deemed disastrous, against Donald Trump It was on June 27 that the outgoing president was forced to withdraw his candidacy in favor of his vice-president, Kamala Harris.

Well-defined strategies

Kamala Harris says she is at a “fundamental disadvantage” against her rival. In order to ensure the debate can take place, she and her campaign have made concessions by agreeing to rules that they believe are favorable to Donald Trump. “Despite our concerns, we understand that Donald Trump may not participate in the debate, as he has previously threatened to do, if we do not accept his preferred format. We do not want to compromise the debate. That is why we have accepted all of the proposed rules,” reads a letter to ABC, relayed by BFMTV.

The reason: the microphones were turned off when the other candidate was speaking. A rule “that will serve to protect Donald Trump from direct exchanges,” believes the Democratic camp. The latter was probably counting on the aggressiveness shown by the billionaire in his campaign to take advantage of it during the debate. But the Republican Party instructed Donald Trump to be precisely “less aggressive” according to Pierre Bourgois, lecturer in political science at the Catholic University of the West, on the set of France 24. And “by cutting the microphones, Donald Trump will be able to position himself as much calmer, more peaceful”. He could also step out of his usual territory and leave aside personal attacks to go to that of ideas and challenge his rival on the substance. This positioning could be a way for Donald Trump to convince undecided voters, when conversely aggressive behavior could turn them away from him. Especially since Kamala Harris must defend the record of President Joe Biden, unlike the Republican who left the White House in 2021.

Detail the electoral programs

This debate is all the more important because it is the first – and possibly the last – between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The duel will be an opportunity for the Democratic candidate to detail her program. “We saw the interview she gave to CNN last week, for the moment, we are on relatively general, superficial considerations”, analyzes Pierre Bourgois. Kamala Harris made a good impression by placing the right to abortion, then the subject of purchasing power as priorities and by mentioning immigration to address moderate right-wing voters. But she must now clarify her remarks and defend the record of the past four years.

But this debate will above all be the moment for Kamala Harris to prove that she knows how to stand up to an incisive Donald Trump. “We don’t know how [Kamala Harris] is when she is cornered, when she is pushed into her entrenchments,” says Pierre Bourgois. Facing her, a regular on the sets, experienced in campaign debates. The billionaire has already multiplied the attacks on his competitor, for example by questioning her origins.

For now, opinion polls show Democrat Kamala Harris slightly ahead in voting intentions, including in the “swing states”, these “tipping” states that can tip the election result towards one camp or the other. For both candidates, this debate is therefore one of the only chances to convince a majority of voters in these key states, in order to ensure a victory in the November 5 election.

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