60 days after the second round of the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron has finally chosen his new Prime Minister. Michel Barnier, from the ranks of the right, now has the heavy task of leading the State’s policy. All in a “demanding cohabitation”, as the Elysée now wants to call the new political situation.
With the question of the name of the new Prime Minister now settled, a multitude of new issues are now presented to Michel Barnier in the coming weeks. L’Express takes stock of the key moments to come in the coming weeks.
Now: The choice of the firm
The first project that the new head of government will tackle will be the formation of his cabinet. One name will be particularly scrutinized: that of his chief of staff. The Elysée has always had a very large influence on the appointments to this position since 2017, going so far as to impose the name of a close friend of Alexis Kohler, Emmanuel Moulin, on Gabriel Attal at Matignon. This time, the secretary general of the Elysée assured that the presidency would “disconnect the wires with Matignon”, as reported by The Figaromaking clear a desire to reduce the interventionism of the first seven years in power.
Two names are currently circulating for this very strategic position, reports this Friday morning. Politico : that of Jérôme Fournel, the current chief of staff of Bruno Le Maire at Bercy, or that of Michel Cadot, the interministerial delegate for the Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Michel Barnier has already chosen a first name for his cabinet this Thursday: that of Nolwenn Chouffot, appointed “mission officer to the Prime Minister”, according to a text published in the Official Journal this Friday, September 6. A position that she already held with Gabriel Attal, but also with Elisabeth Borne, Jean Castex and Edouard Philippe. The first sign of a possible continuity of the new Prime Minister with his predecessor.
In the coming days… or weeks: the appointment of a government
This will be Michel Barnier’s first real big test, which will say a lot about the policy he wants to lead at Matignon: what team will lead the “rallying government in the service of the country” called by Emmanuel Macron when he announced his appointment to the Elysée? As early as Friday morning, the new Prime Minister met his predecessor Gabriel Attal – now president of the Ensemble pour la République (EPR) group in the Assembly – as well as the leaders of his own political party, the Republicans, to sound them out with a view to the participation of their camps in a future government.
Guests who testify to the possible future composition of the government? Laurent Wauquiez assured this Friday that his party would condition its participation on the future political proposals of the new Prime Minister… who came from his own camp. AFP also reports that Michel Barnier would have contacted “certain left-wing personalities” and that other discussions were to follow, including with France Insoumise and the National Rally, because “he wants to unite and respect everyone”. Even if on the left side, it seems more difficult to imagine important figures joining the new executive, the head of the PS Olivier Faure explaining this morning that he was certain “that no PS personality” would enter the government.
Regarding the date for a new government, it is very difficult to say. The Constitution does not impose any deadline for the formation of a new team, simply stating that the President of the Republic appoints ministers “on the proposal of the Prime Minister”. While we can reasonably hope not to have to wait 53 more days, the time it took Emmanuel Macron between the resignation of Gabriel Attal and the appointment of Michel Barnier, the choice of the new government cast could nevertheless take some time given the complexity of the current political situation.
October 1st (or earlier): Return to the National Assembly
While the casting of the new government could therefore take time to take shape, Michel Barnier has every interest in deciding as soon as possible. Because a deadline is coming up very quickly: October 1, the last day for the government to submit its finance bill, i.e. the budget for 2025. Every day spent waiting for a new government will be one day less to add his touch to one of the most important texts on the parliamentary agenda.
October 1 also marks the start of the ordinary session of the National Assembly, i.e. the official resumption of Parliament’s work after the summer break. However, it is also possible that debates will resume earlier at the Palais Bourbon. The President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, officially sent a letter to Emmanuel Macron to request the opening of an exceptional session of Parliament, explaining that the Prime Minister must “be able to appear before the national representation to present his priorities and participate in question sessions.”
This parliamentary session, whether on 1 October or earlier, should also be the occasion for an anticipated event: Michel Barnier’s general policy speech, in which he will present the priorities of his new government. While there is no constitutional obligation for such an exercise, tradition and the very particular political situation make it almost imperative to hold such a speech.
In the process: a first motion of censure?
The resumption of debates in the Assembly also signals the return of motions of censure. Having become a looming guillotine since 2022 and the absence of an absolute majority for the Macronist camp – the Borne and Attal governments had escaped 17 in total, including the very significant one on pension reform -, these should once again punctuate parliamentary news in the coming months.
The left-wing parties should, unsurprisingly, be the first to draw their guns. All the stakeholders in the New Popular Front have promised, from La France Insoumise to the Socialist Party, that they would file a motion of censure against the Barnier government as soon as possible. However, while the new Prime Minister will probably not request a vote of confidence following his general policy speech, this first motion of censure from the ranks of the left should therefore arrive shortly after, on the first day of the parliamentary session.
The outcome of this motion will therefore depend solely on the attitude of the National Rally towards the government. The party’s vice-president Sébastien Chenu stated this Friday that their deputies will not vote for this censure… unless “the Prime Minister strays terribly from our expectations in his general policy speech”. A way of already putting pressure on Michel Barnier. Indeed, the addition of the votes of the 126 RN deputies and the 193 elected members of the New Popular Front largely exceeds the threshold of 289 votes needed to bring down the government. Even if for the moment, this hypothesis seems unlikely, the RN seems to want to take advantage of its position of strength to weigh in with all its weight in the policy led by the new government.