The first ventures into the psychological, less by choice than by necessity, the second is political to the end of his nails, less by necessity than by reflex. Edouard Philippe puts the cart before the horse and yet that is not the style of the house. However, he launches into a war of movement. 2027 does not exist in the interview of the Point, in which he announces his candidacy: it is only a question of “the next presidential election”.
Like many others, like everyone else, he did not see the dissolution coming. On Sunday, June 9, he fell out of the closet. But since Emmanuel Macron has put himself on the ground of the irrational, his former Prime Minister is obliged to put away his school stuff. He will not be surprised a second time. He had an agenda that suits him, precise sequencing of time and space, methodical tour of the sub-prefectures, theorization of slowness. Often Gérald Darmanin urged him to speed up, the mayor of Le Havre considered that he had to take care of his mount and that the presidential election was also an endurance race. The pirouette, as a calendar: “We are closer to 2027 than to 2021, so inevitably it will speed up!”
The President has chosen to flee headlong
Crash. When his Horizons party convened its political bureau two days after the second round of the legislative elections, everything changed. Edouard Philippe understood – no, it escaped his understanding, he rather noted – that the president had chosen to flee headlong and that this risked taking him far, very far… Emmanuel Macron had created a machine that could crush him. This is where psychology comes in, but politics is just behind the curtain. Double message: there is a real possibility that this presidential mandate will not go to its end; only the first dissolution is free, the second could be fatal to the president. Maximum pressure in sight. And we can already guess then that when it comes to preparing the budget, there will be no jostling around the table.
Today’s blockages for the post of Prime Minister only confirm the impression: “No one would put a big dollar on a presidential election held in 2027,” say Edouard Philippe’s friends. He has not decided to be a candidate for the Elysée this summer. Since leaving Matignon, the idea has been brewing in him and when he announces the creation of his movement, on October 9, 2021 in Le Havre, the path becomes a highway. He knows where he wants to go. What he decided this summer, even before leaving on vacation, is not to beat around the bush. He does not know at that time that his announcement will be made in the middle of negotiations around Matignon. The snub to current events must not displease him.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon takes the lead
The war of movement is also his hobby, especially if the president is in a war of position. On July 4, three days before the second round, Jean-Luc Mélenchon took the lead. On TF1’s 8 p.m. news, he said: “If there is no majority, the solution to get out of the impasse is for him [NDLR : Emmanuel Macron] goes away. It’s normal, he’s the one responsible for the mess. “At this moment, he doesn’t yet have the impeachment process in mind. He’ll look for ways later, for now, he’s just giving the battering rams. For the rebellious leader, “every day that passes, the Constitution is taking a beating”. Since 2005 and the referendum on the European constitution which saw a “no” from the ballot box become a “yes” wanted by Nicolas Sarkozy, the system is breaking down. Any maneuver that allows the nail to be hammered home is a good one to take.
Because he has barely met him, because Emmanuel Macron’s psychology is necessarily more foreign to him – “I have never discovered the secret of his behavior, which oscillates between a feeling of omnipotence and seduction that leads him to say what the other wants to hear” – Jean-Luc Mélenchon will only, but completely, situate himself on the political terrain. The person responsible for today’s situation is at the Elysée? He is knocking at the door of the Elysée. Emmanuel Macron has put himself in the syringe, the important thing is to keep him there.
Discussions between some LFI parliamentarians, such as Antoine Léaument and René Pilato, about the new situation created by an NFP majority in the National Assembly office, then the idea of invoking Article 68 arose. Since the recall referendum only exists in Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s program and not in the Constitution, then the impeachment procedure is fine. Of course, it will not go to its conclusion, but it doesn’t matter, the important thing is to establish the end of the reign. The specter of resignation. That and dissolution… Mélenchon has believed in it wholeheartedly since the last presidential election and the legislative elections that followed it, two years ago already. So, he has always been ready. And when we talk to him about 2027, he brushes it aside because it is far away, because he will be 76 years old. It is a lot. Almost too much. The last campaign exhausted him, even if he loves it. You have to move quickly. He likes lightning campaigns. His rebellious machine only needs a slogan. Confidence of the time: “It’s absolute happiness when the idea becomes a material force and I move forward, gently.”
Hollande knows his Mélenchon like the back of his hand
He is not fooling anyone, and especially not François Hollande who knows his Mélenchon like the back of his hand. He too, one day in July 2022, prophesied about the rebel leader who then swore to “step aside”: “he is not going to give up anything. Either it is the street that blocks, social protest, in a difficult economic context, which leads to an encounter with universal suffrage, with a dissolution, or it is a resignation as he dreams of.”
Impeachment, resignation, what if, what if… The PS is also working on the idea of Emmanuel Macron’s early departure. They believe in it, because they hope for it, so goes the socialist adage. “We must not rule out the idea of his hasty departure. How can he also last three years”, asks Patrick Kanner, the leader of the pink senators, who considers that the impeachment process launched by the rebellious only adds chaos to the crisis. On Tuesday evening, September 3, during the national office, a sort of small socialist boulevard theater where people proclaim their disagreements, it was decided that the socialists would not participate in a government that was not that of the New Popular Front. “The present time is the National Assembly, justifies a PS parliamentarian. If we enter the government, we cannot prepare for tomorrow. It is a highway for Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen”. Tomorrow? “We want to be ready for all scenarios,” he added. A few hours earlier on the same Tuesday, during the group meeting, the socialist deputies were racking their brains to understand why Emmanuel Macron was considering appointing Bernard Cazeneuve. The risk loomed of dividing the NFP, of “blocking the path of the united left for 2027,” as one deputy put it.
The Faure clan feared that a Cazeneuve at Matignon would be the assurance of having him as a candidate for the presidential election. However, the first secretary wants to be a candidate in 2027 and even before. “If Macron leaves tomorrow, there will be no union of the left, no primaries… So we will need a candidate from the PS”, one of his friends told him at the time of the dissolution. Plans on the comet that Olivier Faure’s friends sometimes tell François Hollande, convinced that the days of the head of state are numbered and that he will do everything to prevent the old pink house from getting back on its feet. And the former president replied to them: “Stop believing that Macron only thinks about torturing you, he only wants to last until 2027.”
Emmanuel Macron has no intention of resigning, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Edouard Philippe are perfectly aware of this. The former is even watching the nominations to the Constitutional Council in the first quarter of 2025, fearing a Trafalgar blow when the president cannot run for a third consecutive term. It is not a bout of the blues that they are hoping for or anticipating, but a complete institutional blockage. The two men are not alone in this community of interests. For Marine Le Pen and Gabriel Attal too, 2027 is a long way off. The latter does not want to be overtaken by the man from Le Havre, he wants to move quickly, and is eyeing the Renaissance party. The parties are campaign machines. As for Le Pen, she does not really know what will become of her young champion Jordan Bardella. We swear to his loyalty but his popularity is taking off, even if it means taking off? There is always a future for those who think about the future, said François Mitterrand.
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