With Lucie Castets and the NFP sidelined for Matignon, Emmanuel Macron and his camp must now set about solving the very complex equation they are calling for: how to succeed in finding a majority ranging from part of the left to the right-wing deputies?
In an attempt to convince some socialist deputies, a subject has been brought back to the forefront by part of the presidential camp: pension reform. After its very tense adoption in the National Assembly last year, some executives are calling for a compromise and reflection on this point, as a start to discussion with the other parliamentary groups. Starting with the one who had never hidden his reservations about the way the reform was voted on: François Bayrou. “The pension issue was poorly posed. The French should have been more involved. It can be improved with the social partners because, more broadly, social democracy, those who represent society, should have more space in our democratic debate,” insisted the head of the MoDem on the Franceinfo set this Tuesday, August 27.
Near the Echoestwo members of the left wing of the presidential party agree. “We will have to sit down and make an assessment, there may be improvements to be made,” concedes one. “We can look at things like long careers,” confides another.
Repeal, the red line of the presidential camp
One thing is nevertheless certain: the pure and simple repeal of the reform is unsurprisingly an uncrossable red line for the presidential camp. As L’Express reported, Emmanuel Macron seems firmly opposed to offering this victory to the left or to the RN. “If I name it [Lucie Castets]she or a representative of the NFP, they will repeal the pension reform, they will increase the minimum wage to 1,600 euros, the financial markets will panic and France will plunge,” he told a close friend.
Could the presidential camp then convince the votes of socialists who are more distant from the New Popular Front, who are keen to find a compromise between the retirement at 60 wanted by La France Insoumise and the current reform? The path looks narrow. Even the socialist president of the Occitanie region Carole Delga, a fervent opponent of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and who has declared herself open to going back on part of the NFP programme, has been clear, assuring that she wants to “return to retirement at 62”.
A non-issue, in the eyes of the former president of the Renaissance group in the Assembly, Sylvain Maillard. “We can think of improvements, I am waiting for the proposals of the parliamentary groups, but they will have to be done at zero cost. Going back to 62 years, that does not exist,” he declared to the Echoes.
The realities of the new Assembly
Another voice could count in this potential new war of words on pensions: that of the new general rapporteur of the Budget, Charles de Courson. In a letter to the deputies of Ensemble pour la République (ex-Renaissance) revealed by The Worldthe one who had carried the motion of censure that had failed by nine votes to overthrow the Borne government, reiterated his opposition to this reform. “I think that incentive measures are needed, moreover proposed by the Liot group to the Prime Minister of the time, to encourage our fellow citizens to work longer. On the other hand, I fought against the increase in the legal retirement age which constitutes a socially unjust measure”. MP Liot thus opposed the inadmissibility by default of a possible bill repealing the pension reform, leaving this judgment… to the Bureau of the National Assembly, now majority left-wing.
Which raises the main problem. Are Emmanuel Macron and his camp still able to impose their will in this Assembly where their majority, even relative, is now nothing more than a very distant memory? The arrhythmic observation is clear: together, the votes of the deputies of the New Popular Front and the National Rally are more than enough to vote for a repeal of the pension reform. This would then probably be followed by a war of words with the Senate, or even the next government, leaving an uncertainty hanging over them like France is likely to experience many in the coming months.