(Finance) – The cooperatives adhering to Legacoop closed the four-month period from December to March with a positive sign, even if the companies that recorded an increase in request they are 23% (10 percentage points less than in the previous survey), they keep their positioning almost unchanged in markets of reference (for 76%); with regard to the next four months, they are optimistic about the evolution of demand (33% expect it to increase), employment (up 25%) and investments (positive forecasts for 29%); On the other hand, expectations on the Italian economy are negative, expected to worsen by 42% of companies, fueled above all by the increase in production costs (induced by the increases in energy and raw materials) which will push over a third of companies ( 35%) to review prices.
In summary, this is the trend highlighted by the cooperative enterprises belonging to Legacoop as emerges from the results of the economic survey carried out by the Association’s Studies Area. For what concern four months just over, the above-average increases in demand were recorded in the construction industry (39.1%), housing (39.1%) and manufacturing (35.7%) sectors. At the dimensional level, the highest levels of growth are highlighted by the medium-sized cooperatives (35.9%), while at the territorial level the highest percentage is in the North (28.6%). The dynamics of employment are also good, stationary for 69.1% of cooperatives and increasing for 17.7%, with increases above the average in the construction industry (30.4%), in manufacturing activities (24 , 3%) and in social cooperation (21%).
The overall tone does not change in the forecasts for the next quarter. Alongside 52% of cooperatives that expect a steady level of demand, 33% expect it to increase, while 15% expect a decrease (therefore with a positive balance of 18 percentage points). Expectations for an improvement in demand in the cooperatives cultural (44.6%), ofhousing construction (43.5%) andconstruction industry (39.1%). With regard to employment, stationarity forecasts prevail (for 64%), but forecasts of increase (25%) are higher than those of decrease (11%), with a positive balance of 14 percentage points. The most sustained employment increases are expected in construction (39.1%), cultural (28.6%) and service (28%) cooperatives. Investment forecasts are also good, expected to increase by 29% of cooperatives.
As anticipated, expectations on the Italian economy are of the opposite sign, with 42% expecting it to decline (the same percentage for those expecting it to be stationary). It should be noted that the percentage of cooperatives expecting an economic recovery drops drastically from 42% of the previous survey to 16% of the current one. A sentiment which affects, in addition to factors such as labor shortages and bureaucratic impediments, the surge in the prices of energy, raw materials and materials that determine an increase in production costs. Indeed, from a specific focus conducted in the survey, it emerges that between 89% and 98% of cooperatives (depending on the sector of activity) sources energeticshowing average increases of 44% of methane, 41% of electricity, 37% of natural gas, 29% of gas And diesel fuel and 26% of LPG. The same dynamic for the raw materials necessary for the production process, for which 39% of the cooperatives experienced a significant increase in prices. The highest average increase is that of metals (42%), followed by building components (41%), wood and fertilizers (39%), feed (38%), plastic materials (35%) ). Water closes the ranking, for which there is an average increase of 14%. Other prices on the rise are those of ancillary services to carrying out the activity, observed by 56% of cooperatives, in particular those of shipping and transport, with an average increase of 18%.
“The cross-section that emerges from our analysis – he affirms Mauro Lusetti, President of Legacoop- is a contribution that we offer to interpret this phase so confused and controversial that requires a clear mind and steady nerves. Our cooperatives have had a very hard and alarming winter due to the continuous increases in the prices of raw materials and energy. The anguish and uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine have lowered the tone of general confidence. A situation that risks compromising the results of the recovery from the two-year pandemic. The problem, therefore, is how long this situation will last, and also what policies will be activated. Inflation has its roots in the flare-up of costs that are rising up to the final price lists: companies must therefore be supported and the impact on consumers must be calmed; it is certainly not done with an increase in interest rates and a worsening of banking conditions ”.
Against the increase in production costs, 33% of cooperatives has already carried out a review of the prices and price lists to customers, users and clients (3% completely offsetting the increase in costs, 30% partially). A trend confirmed also for the next few months, given that a further 35% of cooperatives plan to proceed with a price revision, in line with the forecast of further increases in energy and raw material prices expressed by 86% of cooperatives.