Yellow vest crisis, farmers’ anger… In France, environmental regulations can quickly degenerate into social movements. Some will blame the inconsistency of the measures to be applied. Others the inability of our country to reform itself other than painfully. However, France is not the only one looking for the right formula on the environmental level. In fact, good green policies – those that reduce our CO2 emissions – while being accepted by the population are extremely rare, if we are to believe a study conducted by German researchers.
Using artificial intelligence, they looked at 1,500 decarbonization policies implemented between 1998 and 2022. Taxes, subsidies, standards in the areas of energy, transport, industry and buildings… All the levers used by the countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) were examined. Result: out of all the cases analyzed, “only 63 public policies proved effective, each achieving an average reduction of 19% in emissions,” the study highlights.
If the majority of the measures implemented fail to bend the CO2 emissions curve, it is because a good number of them are thought of in isolation, such as banning coal-fired power stations, subsidizing renewable energies or implementing a carbon price. According to the authors of the study, the secret of policies that work lies in a clever mix of regulatory strategy and incentive measures. “Successful cases only appear with a tandem of taxes and price incentives, combined with a package of well-designed policies,” explain the researchers.
In this respect, Europe is doing well. A good number of the 63 policies deemed effective take place in European Union countries, thus validating the CO2 taxation strategy implemented over the past twenty years, and the related subsidy policies. “There are many success stories in Europe, as one might expect, because the EU and individual EU countries are at the forefront of environmental issues,” underlines Nicolas Koch, the lead author of this study. The encouraging reductions in emissions, which the researchers estimate to be between 5% and 10%, are observed in the transport sector in France, Ireland, Germany and Romania. Portugal, the Czech Republic and Greece are achieving good results in the electricity production and industry sectors.
No magic wand
But the prize for best student goes to Sweden. “The results of our work show that this country has managed to significantly reduce emissions in buildings. A sector in which many other countries are struggling. How did they do it? They spent money to help owners renovate their homes and change their heating systems. At the same time, they introduced a carbon price on heating oil and domestic gas, which rose from 40 euros to more than 100 euros over time. So it is this combination of measures that has effectively reduced emissions in the sector,” adds Nicolas Koch.
In total, the 63 successful policies represent “emission reductions of between 0.6 and 1.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent,” the study estimates. A modest figure compared to the efforts that remain to be made – 23 billion tonnes by 2030 – to stay on the trajectory set by the Paris Agreement.
“This analysis is useful because it provides some avenues for reflection for certain countries in which the political debate remains compartmentalized,” emphasizes Andreas Rüdinger, researcher in energy policy at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). But these results, which will not surprise climate economists, also show that there is no magic wand to generate a clear reduction in CO2 emissions. “Our conclusions also demonstrate that the multiplication of policies is not necessarily synonymous with better results. On the contrary, it is the right combination of measures that is crucial,” says Nicolas Koch. Finally, the decisions taken in some countries are not necessarily replicable in others.
View all effects
“In transition economies such as India, Brazil, South Africa or Colombia, there is carbon pricing in the electricity sector, but it is not effective. Simply because the price per tonne of CO2 is not high enough there,” Nicolas Koch points out. The policies to encourage sobriety observed in recent years also have variable results. “This is an essential piece of the puzzle for decarbonisation. However, their speed of implementation, like the capacity of the population to adopt these measures, can be very different depending on the political culture of a particular country,” notes Andreas Rüdinger.
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