With just over two months to go until the November 5, 2024 deadline for the election of the 47th American president, polls are multiplying across the Atlantic. The votes of women, men, young and old, executives and workers, but especially those of residents of swing states (known as “swing states”, these are states with traditionally close results that can swing to one camp or the other) are being scrutinized. Especially since Joe Biden abandoned the race for the White House, the curve of voting intentions has radically reversed.
On Thursday, August 23, Kamala Harris, the current vice president, officially became the Democratic presidential nominee at the close of the party’s convention in Chicago. Endorsed by former President Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle Obama, Kamala Harris’ candidacy was further galvanized.
Slight lead for Harris
According to the survey aggregator 538the Democratic candidate is ahead of her Republican rival Donald Trump by about 3.5 points. The result is expected to be close, but Kamala Harris’s curve is improving while Donald Trump’s has stagnated for weeks. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, published Saturday, August 24, found that Harris was ahead of Trump with 50% of the vote compared to 43% nationally, while 7% of respondents said they would vote for someone else, reports the Washington Political Journal The Hill.
In addition, Kamala Harris appears to be taking the lead in many key states. In Texas, for example, a Republican territory since 1980, Donald Trump’s lead has been significantly reduced. The Democrat has come back to within 5 points of the Republican candidate, while her camp was behind by more than 10 points before her inauguration, underlines The Texas Tribune. A survey published by the New York Times On August 12, it was thus given a four-point victory in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Three states where Joe Biden was lagging behind before giving up his candidacy, and narrowly won in 2016 by Donald Trump.
Marked differences between men and women
Since Joe Biden’s withdrawal, the duel between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has highlighted a particularly marked divergence between female and male voters. In an opinion poll made public by CBS56% of women surveyed say they want to vote for the vice president and 44% for the former head of state. The trend is reversed regarding the vote for former president Donald Trump. 54% say they prefer him against 45% for Kamala Harris. The newspaper The Hill notes that pollsters note that race or gender plays a significant role in Kamala Harris’s lead. When voters are asked to think about race or gender, the Democrat’s lead increases significantly, while support for Harris and Trump is nearly tied when they are not asked to think about it, the newspaper notes. The numbers from a Siena/New York Timesconducted in three decisive states, are even more striking: 52% of voters say they prefer the Republican candidate, and 39% his rival; while 56% of female voters support the Democratic candidate, against only 35% behind Donald Trump.
Asked last Thursday on the channel Fox Newson the subject of Kamala Harris’ growing popularity in the polls, Trump responded: “No, she’s not successful. I’m successful. I do very well with Hispanic voters. I do very well with black men. I do very well with women, because women want security.” Still, nothing is a foregone conclusion. The two candidates are scheduled to face off on September 10 in a televised debate on ABC News. A performance that could be decisive.