(Telestock) – In the first semester of the year have arrived at INPS, overall, 15.7 million medical certificates of illness (+1.3%)of which 11.8 million (75.5%) from the private sector. In more detail, in the first quarter 8.7 million certificates arrived (-3.7%) and in the second quarter almost 7 million certificates (+8.3%). In both years, given the seasonality of the disease phenomenon there is a record negative change from the first to the second quarter: in 2023 equal to -28.9% and in 2024 to -20.1%. This is what emerges from the latest six-monthly Observatory on illness published by INPS.
First quarter down
In the first quarter, the decrease in certificates is slightly higher in Northern Italy (-4.4%) compared to the Centre (-3.5%) and the South (-2.5%), it is higher for the women (-4.4%) and is higher for ages including between 30 and 49 years old (-6.6%) and much less for the more advanced ages (-1.9% for the ’50 years and over’ class).
Total sick days there were about 31 million in the private sector and 9.2 million in the public sector, with a decrease of -3.7% and -4.2% respectively; on average, sick days per certificate were 4.7 in the private sector (compared to 4.8 in the first quarter of 2023) and 4.2 in the public sector (a value similar to that recorded in the first quarter of 2023).
Second quarter growth
As regards the second quarter, the increase in the number of certificates was similar for the regions of Center and of the North (+9.7% and +9.2%) and less high in the South (+5.8%). The increase is also higher for the women (+9.3%) compared to men (+7.4%), and for the youngest (+13.2% in the ‘up to 29 years’ class).
Total sick days in the second quarter of 2024 there were approximately 25.8 million in the private sector and 7.3 million in the public sectorwith an increase of +4.2% and +8.3% respectively. Sick days per certificate were on average 4.9 in the private sector (against 5.0 in the second quarter of 2023) and 4.4 in the public sector (against 4.5 in 2023).
Tax audits on the decline
Regarding the activity of inspection verification of the worker’s state of illness, approximately 230 thousand visits (-29%) in the first trimester and 208 thousand (-32.4%) in the second.
In the first quarter, there was a slight decrease in the eligibility rate which measures, in relation to the number of visits carried out, in how many cases the worker is recognized as fit to resume work activity: for private sector insured persons at 11.5% for office visits and at 21.1% for those requested by the employer; for workers of the Single Centre at 21.5% for visits arranged by the office and at 29% for visits arranged by the employer. The eligibility rate also increased in the second quarter shows a more contained decrease for all types except for visits to the single hub with the suitability rate of office visits increasing to 20.4%