Kamala Harris will be officially sworn in as the Democratic presidential candidate at the Chicago convention, which ends on August 22. The party is united behind her, but can the vice president win against Donald Trump?
“When we fight, we win!” Kamala Harris received a fresh wave of support at the opening of the Democratic convention in Chicago on Monday, August 19. The vice president, who is set to be formally sworn in as the party’s presidential nominee at the end of the convention on Thursday, August 22, was not scheduled to speak until the end of the convention, but she was in attendance at Chicago’s United Center. The politician said she was “eternally grateful” to Joe Biden who formally passed the torch to him in a speech that received a standing ovation and seemed to announce the end of his political career. The American president went so far as to present his withdrawal from the election in favor of Kamala Harris as the “best decision of his career.”
Kamala Harris has been giving the Democratic Party a boost since she emerged as the new presidential candidate against Donald Trumpthe choice of her name was imposed in the hours following Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and most of the Democratic heavyweights are uniting behind her candidacy. And the political party is reconsidering its chances of winning the race for the White House given the momentum of the vice president in the polls and more broadly in light of her start to the campaign. But Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, must go the distance until the election on November 5, 2024. Will the former attorney general of California manage to convert the test and retain the sympathy of voters after the excitement of the beginning? She already has several arguments in her favor.
1. The polls are in his favor
Kamala Harris’ candidacy to replace Joe Biden has had a clear impact on poll results. While the American president was lagging behind his rival Donald Trump, the vice president has emerged as the leader in voting intentions in the latest studies published since the end of July. Kamala Harris is once again ahead of the Republican candidate in the study byIpsos for the Washington Post and ABC News published on August 18: 49 against 45% for the share of voters registered to vote.
While this national indicator speaks for itself, it is mainly the results of state polls that focus politicians’ attention: each state won by a candidate is a guarantee of the support of a certain number of votes out of the more than 500 electors who ultimately vote to elect the American president. Among the 50 American states, some are won over by one political party or another, but others swing from right to left depending on the polls. These are the latter, the “swing states”, which must be won to ensure access to the White House and Kamala Harris appears at the top of several of them in the latest polls: Michigan, Wisconsin, but also Arizona and Pennsylvania, with however a small lead over Donald Trump who maintains the advantage in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. These trends still have time to evolve, but Kamala Harris must remain in the lead in these states if she wants to be able to settle into the White House.
2. His profile is more popular with certain electorates
Kamala Harris’ personal journey is impressive and the vice president knows how to remind people of it. “I am the empirical proof of the promise of America,” she regularly explains, she the African-American from an academic background who became the first woman to be elected district attorney of San Francisco, before becoming attorney general of California from 2011 to 2017. As a woman, Kamala Harris is likely to obtain a better score than Joe Biden, but especially than Donald Trump, with American female voters. The Democrats historically record good scores with this electorate and hope to capitalize further on these votes with their new candidate.
The vice president is a black and mixed-race woman and this profile is likely to convince the African-American electorate to support the Democratic candidate. African-Americans and other minority communities overwhelmingly support the Democratic camp and Kamala Harris can strengthen this support, where Joe Biden was losing ground. Kamala Harris is doing better than Joe Biden in all categories of voters according to polling institutes, including African-Americans, Latino Americans, WASPs (white Anglo-Saxon Protestants). The fact remains that the candidate still has to work to convince Hispanic voters who are more right-wing.
3. His running mate, Tim Walz
If Kamala Harris is a pure Democrat from California who convinces in historically Democratic states, she may have more difficulty convincing in the Midwestern states that lean towards the Republican side or swing from one camp to the other depending on the polls. To seduce this electorate, it is her running mate Tim Walz who could be a good asset. Governor of Minnesota, the politician is popular in the Midwest to the point that he was appointed in place of Josh Shapiro, another popular Democrat in this region of the United States. The vice-presidential candidate also helps to balance and reassure the male electorate as a white man alongside a female and black candidate.
4. His presidential program
The outcome of the American presidential election will also depend, in part, on the candidates’ programs. On this point, Kamala Harris insists on her difference with Donald Trump by having made the right to abortion one of her priorities from the beginning of her campaign, facing a Republican camp at the origin of the tightening of access to abortion in several states. The vice-president has also invested in the subject of the environment to stand out from her rival who broke with the Paris agreements during his first term.
Economic measures could also be crucial and Kamala Harris has already outlined her program on this aspect on Friday, August 16 during a trip to North Carolina: she said she wanted to work “to give money back to middle- and working-class families” while Donald Trump “fights for billionaires and big business”. The Democratic candidate promises to defend purchasing power, create new housing and offer financial aid for first-time home purchases or a tax credit for births. A speech that is aimed at the middle and working classes that she must convince, especially undecided voters. These economic measures could perhaps swing some moderate Republican voters to her camp. The vice president also has a shot at fighting crime, a subject dear to the Republican middle class. Having already shown herself to be firm on these subjects as California’s prosecutor, her policy had even earned her the judgement of being too harsh by some Democratic comrades. This time, it could earn her additional support. However, she would have to play a balancing act on immigration, one of the most divisive subjects between the left and the right.
5. His clean criminal record
Facing Donald Trump, Kamala Harris is organizing the duel between the prosecutor and the criminal: she was one of the faces of justice in San Francisco and California, while Donald Trump is the only former president and candidate for the White House found guilty in a criminal case, and on 34 counts. It should be noted that other trials await Donald Trump. The Democratic vice president has from the beginning made this parallel between herself and her rival, also recalling the assault on the Capitol after the Republican’s defeat in the 2020 presidential election. “Donald Trump openly promised that, if re-elected, he would be a dictator from day one, that he would use Justice against his political enemies (…) and even that he would, I quote, ‘repeal the Constitution'” she declared during a rally in Wisconsin in early August.
6. His age
It was concerns about his health and age that prompted Joe Biden to withdraw in favor of Kamala Harris. At 59, the vice president is in fact the youngest candidate in the American presidential election, facing Donald Trump, who is 78. At 20 years younger, the Democrat can turn the arguments used by the billionaire against Joe Biden against him. According to some polls, Biden’s withdrawal has prompted introspection among some Republican voters: 27% believe that Trump should be replaced as the Republican candidate, a figure that is on the rise.
Donald Trump’s counterattack against Kamala Harris
If Kamala Harris has a better chance of winning than Joe Biden, against Donald Trump, a victory in the American presidential election is far from guaranteed. Her lead in the polls is still catchable, especially in the two months separating her from the election. Donald Trump, hoping to regain the advantage, has already brought out the big guns to discredit his new rival who is making the battle more complicated. The Republican is attacking the vice president’s record on the subject of immigration, which she was in charge of, and especially her record as California’s prosecutor on which he considers her lax. The objective is clear: to keep every last Republican vote and discourage the undecided from choosing the Democratic candidate.
Donald Trump also has no qualms about lambasting his rival on highly subjective arguments. He has already given her an unflattering nickname, “Laughing Kamala”, to rally her bursts of laughter, which are considered to be a poor sign of seriousness. In addition to his arguments, the Republican candidate does not hesitate to spread false information via images generated by artificial intelligence to discredit Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. The battle is already raging.