Ukrainian progress in Russia, a new shift?

Ukrainian progress in Russia a new shift

The Ukrainian army continues its advance in the Russian border region of Kursk on the eighth day of an unprecedented offensive that Moscow has promised to halt.

Ukrainian forces have launched an offensive in the Russian oblast of Kursk. For the first time since World War II, a regular army has entered part of Russian territory. The acting governor of this region, Alexei Smirnov, reported the situation to Vladimir Putin on Monday, August 12. In total, 28 localities are said to be under Ukrainian control, in an operational zone 12 km deep and 40 km wide, or 480 km². The Ukrainian authorities, for their part, claim 1,000 km² under the control of their army.

“Ukraine does not want to annex any territory in the Kursk region,” the spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs assured on Tuesday, August 13. This unprecedented offensive, he assured, will stop if Russia accepts the conditions set by Ukraine: “The sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace […]the faster the incursions of the Ukrainian defense forces into Russian territory will cease.” For its part, the Russian army assured that it would “thwart” new Ukrainian attacks.

Ukrainian forces advance

Ukraine has been trying to reverse the balance of power since the end of its counteroffensive in November 2023 and to take advantage of the laxity of Russian forces on the border. The Ukrainian authorities have decided to bet on creating a counterfire to force its adversary to disperse its resources, diverting part of the pressure from eastern Ukraine to the Kursk region in Russia. A tactical distraction as one of the main objectives of this incursion.

After a week, Ukrainian forces have seized several localities, the most important of which is the city of Sudja, 5,000 inhabitants, and continue to advance in several directions. This operation would put the Russian authorities in difficulty. The Ukrainian offensive reverses the image of a stalemate in the conflict that had been taking place for several months, and boosts morale that was at half-mast within the army in particular.

More than 120,000 people have been evacuated from the Russian region, many by their own means. The number of Ukrainian troops involved in the offensive is in the thousands. The region’s governor, Alexei Smirnov, said that 12 civilians had been killed and 121 wounded since the Ukrainian incursion began on August 6. For his part, Vladimir Putin called the offensive a “major provocation” and expressed his desire to “expel” the Ukrainian army from Russian territory. Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, assured that a firm response from Russia “will not be long in coming.”

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