These pivotal states will decide the fate of the American presidential election. New polls published this weekend in the United States show Kamala Harris winning against Donald Trump in three key states, reversing the trend of recent months, at a time when the Republican campaign is struggling in the face of new momentum on the Democratic side.
According to surveys conducted by THE New York Times and Siena Collegethe American vice-president is ahead of her Republican rival for the November election with 50% of voting intentions against 46% in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three important states in the “Midwest”. Due to a particular electoral system, the American presidential election is generally played out in a few key states, which can lean to the right or the left, out of the 50 that make up the country.
But the favorable dynamics on the Democratic side since Joe Biden’s withdrawal in favor of Kamala Harris does not prevent voters, according to polls, from preferring Donald Trump on the major campaign themes of the economy and immigration. According to these same polls, however, those questioned consider her to be more intelligent and with a better profile to govern the country.
Trump underestimated in 2016
In a statement, the Republican candidate’s campaign team questioned the reliability of these polls, which it said were published “with the clear intention and purpose of lowering support for President Trump.” The polls had underestimated Donald Trump’s support in 2016. And Kamala Harris’ lead is within the average margin of error for polls of 4.5 points.
Tuesday’s announcement that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz would be Harris’ running mate also appears to have galvanized Democrats. Before Biden, 81, withdrew, Trump, 78, had been the frontrunner, particularly after his assassination attempt and triumph at the Republican convention in July. Harris’s entry into the race has upended the Republican campaign, which had been heavily focused on Biden’s age and widespread concerns about his physical and mental abilities.
Since then, neither Donald Trump’s attacks on Kamala Harris’s origins nor the controversies sparked by past remarks made by his running mate JD Vance have helped to truly revive the Republican campaign. But observers warn that Democrats should be wary of being too optimistic, as Donald Trump still remains the overall favorite in national polls.