Fighting continues to rage on Russian soil this Saturday, August 10. Five days after the launch of a Ukrainian armed incursion into the Russian border region of Kursk on Tuesday, the Russian army indicated this Saturday, August 10, that clashes between its forces and Ukrainian troops were continuing.
The Russian Defense Ministry also said it was using aviation and artillery to strike Ukrainian soldiers and military equipment, as it faces Ukraine’s largest armed operation on its soil since the start of the conflict. An incursion of unprecedented scale, but the exact details of which are still uncertain. Here’s a rundown of what we know so far.
Where is the Ukrainian incursion?
It was at 8:00 Moscow time that Ukrainian forces launched their attack on Russia on Tuesday, August 6. The Russian army general staff estimated that more than a thousand Ukrainian soldiers crossed the border of the Kursk region in the southwest of the country, supported by about ten tanks and about twenty other armored vehicles. The details of the fighting are still unclear, but according to military analyst Serguii Zgurets, photos show “the destruction of Russian and Ukrainian equipment, helicopters, the use of aviation, [et] “The use of artillery by both sides,” he told AFP on Thursday. Signs of a large-scale military operation, he said.
Although the exact progression of Ukrainian troops is not known, analysts from theInstitute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated on Thursday that they had advanced up to ten kilometers inside Russian territory. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed on Friday that Kiev’s soldiers had reached Sudja, a Russian city of 5,500 inhabitants about ten kilometers from the border. A strategic city for Ukraine and Russia, since it hosts a transit hub for Russian gas sold in Europe.
Information relating to the positions of the Ukrainian forces must, however, be taken with a pinch of salt, as it depends almost exclusively on Russian sources. Thus, if the ISW confirmed their presence in Soudja on Saturday by “geolocalized images published on August 9”, it specifies that “the Ukrainian forces […] were probably no longer operating as far north or west as Russian sources had claimed on August 8.”
What risk for the local nuclear power plant?
The Ukrainian incursion could, however, hit a sensitive spot: the nuclear power plant in the Kursk region. On Saturday, Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom said the military operation posed a “direct threat” to the energy infrastructure, which is located less than 50 kilometers from the fighting.
This warning echoes that of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The day before, the Director General of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, had also called “to exercise maximum restraint in order to avoid a nuclear accident likely to have serious radiological consequences,” in a press release.
Although everything is “functioning normally” for now, according to the press service of the plant, quoted by the Russian news agency Ria Novosti, the site is located near the town of Kurchatov, which is currently without electricity. The cause: a substation that caught fire following the fall of fragments of Ukrainian drones, said regional governor Alexei Smirnov.
What is Ukraine’s goal?
The details and precise objectives of this incursion are not yet known. Indeed, the Ukrainian authorities have been unusually silent since Tuesday: in Kiev, no one officially acknowledges the existence of this operation, and senior officials refuse to comment. Even the United States, Kiev’s closest ally, has said that it had not been informed of the plans in advance.
Although he has not yet directly mentioned this incursion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to praise the initial successes of his troops on Thursday evening, stating that “everyone can see that the Ukrainian army knows how to surprise and knows how to obtain results.”
According to several experts cited by AFP, including military analyst Oleksiy Kopytko, the operation would aim to “reduce the stability of the Russian group that is attacking or lurking around Kharkiv”, a Ukrainian region where Russia launched an offensive in May. For Serguiy Solodky, a senior official at the New Europe Centre think tank in kyiv, this incursion would also aim to “show Russian society what it feels like when your territory is occupied”.
What impact on civilians?
Again, the precise consequences of this operation on the Russian population are not yet known. On the first day of the attack, the governor of the Kursk region reported that five civilians had been killed. On Friday, it was the turn of the Russian Ministry of Health to mention 55 people hospitalized.
A state of emergency was declared in the Russian region of Kursk on Wednesday, and the Russian government’s first response was to evacuate. One of the first trains taking residents of the region to the Russian capital arrived in Moscow on Friday, AFP reported. By that time, nearly 3,000 people had been evacuated, the local governor said Friday.
Photo released on August 9, 2024 by the government of the Kursk region, Russia, showing women and children evacuated from the town of Rylsk
© / afp.com/HANDOUT
On the other side of the border, in the Ukrainian region of Sumy, which faces Kursk, the police have called for the evacuation of around 20,000 people living in 28 localities, due to Russian strikes.
How is Russia responding to this incursion?
Russia was quick to respond to the attack: “Russian President Vladimir Putin called a meeting of his Security Council on Friday and his military commanders rushed to send reinforcements,” the American daily Washington PostThe Russian Defense Ministry then assured that the Ukrainian attacks had been “thwarted.”
On the same day, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia also declared a “federal emergency” situation in the Kursk region. According to the Spanish daily The Countrythis will allow Russia to allocate to this region “forces and resources from all over the country, and allow it to receive funds from the federal budget.” The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee also announced on Friday an “anti-terrorist operation” in three regions bordering Ukraine: “Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk […] in order to ensure the safety of citizens and eliminate the threat of terrorist acts carried out by enemy sabotage groups.”
This type of operation allows the Russian security forces and army to have considerable emergency powers: whether to limit movement in certain areas, set up checkpoints or reinforce security on strategic infrastructure sites. All to avoid a debacle on Russian soil.