Ukrainian troops have advanced at least ten kilometers on Russian soil in the Kursk region.
The American think tank Institute for the Study of War tells about it.
It is the first time that Ukraine has penetrated on a large scale across the border during the war of aggression started by Russia.
In this article, we put together four possible reasons for the extraordinary ground attack in Ukraine that started on Tuesday.
1. Withdrawal of Russian troops from the east
According to researchers, the goal of the Ukrainian offensive operation may be to slow down Russian attacks elsewhere, in eastern Ukraine.
According to Russia, Ukraine attacked across the border with about a thousand soldiers and numerous armored vehicles. Support was provided by drones and artillery.
Russia’s claim has not been confirmed by independent sources.
Ukraine has attacked with a highly mobile mechanized force, writes the researcher Mick Ryan blog platform at Substack.
Ryan is a retired Major General from the Australian Armed Forces who works as a researcher at the American think tank Center for Strategic & International Studies.
According to him, two of the Ukrainian brigades participating in the attack have been identified so far. They are the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, characterized as elite forces.
The Ukrainian forces are accompanied by a significant amount of anti-aircraft equipment. This hinders Russia’s ability to use effective cruise bombs to counter the attack, Ryan estimates.
– Possibly new F-16 fighters have also been involved, so we are talking about a joint operation, says the assistant military professor Juha Kukkola About the National Defense University in an interview with .
Kukkola estimates that Ukraine might try to force Russia to move its troops out of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine to defend Russia’s own soil.
Ukrainian forces have been in trouble for a long time in the Donetsk region.
Mick Ryan assesses in his blog that it is likely that Russia will really have to transfer troops from somewhere else to Kursk, but not necessarily from the most important front blocks in Donetsk.
It seems that Ukraine is now gambling with high stakes.
According to Ryan, the Kursk operation may turn out to be either a brilliant counter-movement or a strategic mistake that will hinder Ukraine’s defense on the eastern front.
2. A drastic claim: Ukraine would like to blow up the Russian nuclear power plant
Important energy and transport infrastructure is located in the Kursk region. They may be aimed at Ukraine. Russian war bloggers speculated that Ukraine would try to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant.
Ukrainian and Russian forces have been fighting, for example, around the city of Suža.
An important gas pumping station is located near the city, through which Russian natural gas passes through Ukraine to Europe.
On Wednesday, it was reported that Ukrainian troops had taken control of the gas pumping station.
Russian gas is still flowing normally to the west, Ukrainian and Russian sources say.
The Kursk nuclear power plant is located more than a hundred kilometers from the border. Russian war bloggers have speculated that the Ukrainians would try to take control of the power plant.
Well-known war blogger and propagandist Alexander Sladkov is painting messaging service in Telegram three reasons why Ukraine would like a nuclear power plant for itself.
Sladkov claims that Ukraine could try to replace the Kursk power plant with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which was seized by Russia in 2022.
Another option, according to Sladkov, is that Ukraine would try to disable the Kursk nuclear power plant.
Third, Sladkov claims that Ukraine could demand that Russia withdraw its forces from Ukraine or else it would blow up a nuclear power plant and cause a massive disaster.
Assistant military professor Juha Kukkola does not consider the nuclear power plant a likely target.
– Threatening the nuclear power plant with the armed forces could even undermine Ukraine’s support from the West, says Kukkola.
CSIS’s Mick Ryan writes that Ukraine may seek to stop traffic on Russia’s important road and rail routes.
The railway goes through Suža to, for example, Belgorod. Russia has used it to maintain the Kharkiv front.
3. In conquered countries, Ukraine could extort its own territories back from Russia
Ukraine is trying to seize territories from Russia, perhaps so that it could trade with them in peace negotiations, Mick Ryan estimates. In return, it could get back territories occupied by Russia.
Ukraine has hoped that Russia would participate in the peace conference to be organized in Switzerland in November. Russia has so far refused the invitation.
Negotiations on the exchange of land areas would, however, require that Ukraine be allowed to occupy the areas it considered to be occupied.
– It is difficult to assess whether Ukraine would really be able to hold on to these areas, when Russia will certainly launch a counterattack soon, says assistant professor Kukkola.
So far, the Ukrainian-held areas in Kursk are also very small compared to the very large areas occupied by Russia.
4. Raising the will to fight and managing publicity
Ukraine is trying to polish the public image of its weak military success. A successful operation on Russian soil would also boost morale on the home front.
According to assistant professor Juha Kukkola, Ukraine may try to convince its Western allies that the Ukrainian armed forces are capable of offensive warfare and striking against Russia.
Faith has been tested. Few people in Europe believe that Ukraine could win the war anymore.
Researcher Mick Ryan estimates that Ukraine is also trying to raise the will to fight at home, where the prolongation of the war and attacks on energy networks have dampened moods.
Ukraine has not yet justified its operation.
Assistant to the President of Ukraine Myhailo Podoljak however wrote message service in Xthat all the destruction in Kursk and elsewhere in Russia is entirely Russia’s responsibility, because it started the war.