Summer is pleasant, the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, despite the grumpy ones, was acclaimed by the French (86% of them found it successful, according to Harris Interactive) and impressed the world, as the press headlines attest. But, without the French being aware of it, our country is sliding towards a financial crisis magnified by the political crisis: the specter of the unsustainability of public finances is growing. Over the first five months of the year, the State deficit reached 180 billion euros. This is an unprecedented level for a comparable period, a level that should justify rigorous action on the part of a determined government that would have clear ideas.
In July, the very serious Economic Analysis Council published a note on public finances, signed by Thomas Philippon, Adrien Auclerc and Xavier Ragot. I will summarize the main argument that clearly frames the problem we are facing. Our public debt is increasing structurally due to the accumulation of “primary deficits”, that is to say without even taking into account the debt burden. Our country must reduce its public deficit for three reasons: guarantee the solvency of our finances, reassure our creditors and ensure that interest rates remain low, and respect our European commitments. However, this reduction can only come from moving from a situation of primary deficit to a primary surplus, which must be established, according to the authors, at 1% of GDP. In concrete terms, this means generating permanent savings of around 110 billion euros within seven to twelve years. This figure would put our finances back on the path to sustainability without affecting our economy. It is both difficult and within reach.
So much for the financial framework. How to deal with the subject politically? First, we must explain to our fellow citizens that debt reduction is not just an economic issue but that the sovereignty of our country is at stake. Nearly half of the value of our public debt is financed from abroad. Our wasteful policy is weakening our independence, which is why de Gaulle and Pompidou placed these financial issues among their priorities. Then, in the country where compulsory deductions are already the highest in the world, it should be easy to understand that this effort must be based essentially on reducing spending. Increasing taxes in France would result in reducing activity and therefore tax revenues. Yet this is the brilliant proposal of the New Popular Front (NFP).
Finally, we must have the courage to explain that public spending cannot be a solution to all our problems. By observing the functioning of the French economy day after day and in concrete terms, we cannot help but be struck by the frequency of appeals to the State in monetary form. Whether it is to insulate houses, open a museum or a health center, put on a show, buy an electric car, create an association… the State and/or local authorities must put a note in the pot. Everything is a pretext for a subsidy. Everything happens as if the State were an abstract entity holding a hidden and unlimited treasure of which it is appropriate to attribute a share. There exists in our country a myth of the State, a sort of God that it would be appropriate to invoke to obtain its financial favors. This is the heart of our collective problem. The main subject of a rational government that prioritizes the interest of the future of France should be that of the detoxification of France from public spending. The State should have the courage to say no because the State is not an abstraction, it is us and our children.
Suffice to say that we are far from that since, in the campaign for the last legislative elections, both the RN and the delusional NFP have on the contrary multiplied the promises of new public spending. As for the right, it would have a political boulevard in front of it by making debt reduction a major objective of a government but the egos of some and others and the exclusive focus on the presidential election of 2027 visibly prevent it from acting for the good of France.
.