Despite the Olympic truce, Emmanuel Macron is refining his thinking regarding the composition of the future government. Some loyal ministers could even remain in office within his executive.
The essential
- Emmanuel Macron has postponed the appointment of a new Prime Minister and government until after the Olympic Games, i.e. not before “mid-August”. For the time being, it is therefore the resigning government of Gabriel Attal that is managing current affairs.
- On the left, Lucie Castets, NFP candidate for Matignon has not said her last word. This is why the 37-year-old senior civil servant has decided to travel more and more throughout France and not stop at the first refusal of Emmanuel Macron, insensitive to her profile to replace Gabriel Attal.
- On summer break at Fort Brégançon this week, the President of the Republic has not forgotten the composition of his new government. For the post of Prime Minister, a profile is emerging: “a man or woman, consensual, who pleases both the left and the right”, we can read in the columns of Le Monde.
- For the rest of the government team, the head of state could be tempted to rely on certain forces present, by keeping several current ministers in office. The portfolios of Justice, Defense and the Interior are notably mentioned, Politico indicates this Thursday, August 1.
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12:46 – Taxing French expatriates, Lucie Castets (NFP) begins to unveil her program
Candidate of the New Popular Front for the post of Prime Minister, Lucie Castets, 37, has begun to reveal the first proposal of a hypothetical program if she were to enter Matignon. The senior civil servant hopes that “tax expatriates pay their taxes to the French tax authorities, as expatriate Americans do to the United States tax authorities” she declares in the columns of The Sunday Tribune.
The goal: to tax nationals up to the amount of tax they would have paid if they lived in France, after deduction of the tax already paid in their country of residence. A tax that would only come into force from a certain level of income and therefore, not for everyone.
11:27 – Bertrand, the option that would put “pressure on Wauquiez”
This Thursday, August 1, another minister indicated to Politico that the appointment of Xavier Bertrand to Matignon would allow “pressure to be put on Wauquiez” or at least, would force the leader of the LR in the National Assembly to “come and discuss, really” with the central bloc. There would even be discussions between the Elysée and the future ex-president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, on the subject of the latter’s entry into the government, within an executive alliance between The Republican Right And Together.
10:58 – Xavier Bertrand Prime Minister to overcome divisions?
“Mutual contempt” with Emmanuel Macron according to information from Politicomore than delicate relations with the leader of the LR in the National Assembly Laurent Wauquiez… The profile of Xavier Bertrand, if it has been acclaimed in the media for several days, is not frankly the one that fits the most with the function. A disadvantage on the surface, which could finally turn into a significant advantage for the president of the Hauts-de-France region.
A minister told Politico that this could be a “trial balloon”. In other words, “the president is forced to think about people who have been hard on him. He wants to show that he is magnanimous, that the country’s interest comes before personal grudges”, he continued. Enough to give even more weight to the Xavier Bertrand rumor at Matignon, this Thursday, August 1st.
10:37 – “He wants people of his own, and probably people already in office”
Still according to information from PoliticoEmmanuel Macron would consider keeping some ministers already in office, notably in sovereign positions, “where he has habits”, such as the portfolios of Justice, the Interior or Defense. Eric Dupond-Moretti, Gérald Darmanin and Sébastien Lecornu would then find themselves concerned.
However, the situation could prove complex for the resigning Minister of the Interior, elected in the early legislative elections in the 10th constituency of the North, who has already made known his desire to leave. A member of the current government could therefore replace him. “Clearly, these are portfolios that he does not want to negotiate. He wants his own people there, and probably people already in office,” the same minister continued to Politico.
10:15 – Several current ministers could keep their positions
From Fort Brégançon, Emmanuel Macron is refining his plan as part of the composition of the future government. And despite a government of cohabitation, or even a technical executive, a surprise could occur in the coming weeks. The President of the Republic could well be tempted to keep some of his current ministers in office, namely confidence and stability.
“No one is legitimate to remain in government, no one is illegitimate to remain there” confided a minister to Politico this Thursday, May 1, 2024. According to this source, the head of state would “need to close ranks around him”. In other words, to keep certain loyal, close ones, despite the defeat in the last early legislative elections.
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How soon will the new government be appointed?
Emmanuel Macron called for a “political truce” for the duration of the Olympic Games, while Gabriel Attal’s government resigned on July 16. The President of the Republic estimated that no new government would be appointed before “mid-August”, preferring “stability” for the duration of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
Given the composition of the National Assembly, the President of the Republic has set himself the task of finding a Prime Minister capable of gathering the support of at least 289 deputies, in order to ensure stability. The same applies to the ministers that the latter will then have to propose. Otherwise, the new government as a whole would be exposed to a motion of censure which, if voted for by more than half of the elected representatives, would lead to the overthrow of the ministerial team. It would therefore be necessary to start all over again.
The problem is that Emmanuel Macron will have to accommodate all sensitivities, from the left of course, from the center naturally, but also from the right. If the NFP came out on top, the head of state has already ruled out governing with the LFI deputies. So out goes these sixty elected officials, who could be compensated by the sixty LR who should once again join the Palais Bourbon. Finding personalities who suit the ecologists, socialists, communists, macronists and republicans will not be easy. Not to mention the programmatic points on which everyone will have to agree. The negotiations are still expected to be long and complex. Suffice to say that Gabriel Attal should make extra…
Long and complex negotiations also took place on the left, before the NFP reached an agreement, on Tuesday July 23, just one hour before Emmanuel Macron’s interview on France 2. After several weeks of procrastination, the left-wing parties of the NFP agreed on the name of the senior civil servant, spokesperson for Our Public Services, Lucie Castets, for Matignon.
What could be the profile of the future Prime Minister?
Emmanuel Macron is taking advantage of a summer break from Fort Brégançon to give new clues about the profile of the new Prime Minister. Clear elements are now emerging for the person who will take over from Gabriel Attal. The head of government will have to be “a man or woman, consensual, who pleases both the left and the right”, we can read in the columns of Le Monde. According to the Elysée, this personality will also have to give off “a scent of cohabitation”. This is an important clue about the composition of the new government and its political color. Especially after Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to see the NFP candidate, Lucie Castets, at Matignon. The newspaper Le Monde also reveals that the posture of “the omnipresent”, adopted by Emmanuel Macron could now transform into a “Mitterrandian attitude”.
On Wednesday, July 31, our colleagues at Politico also indicated that another option could catch Emmanuel Macron’s attention, even if Xavier Bertrand’s rating seems higher than ever in the race for Matignon. A minister confided to them that a profile “retired from political life”, “in any case closer to the end than the beginning” of his career could hold the rope. He notably cites former ministers from the Republican right: Michel Barnier or Jean-Louis Borloo.