The expert: Gigantic risk of major war

The attack that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniya is a “great embarrassment” for Iran, according to Iran expert Rouzbeh Parsi.

The risk of a major regional war in the Middle East is currently high, according to several experts.

– There is a very big risk that this will completely go awry, says Parsi.

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Ismail Haniya, who has now been killed in Iran’s capital Tehran, is “on paper” Hamas’ top leader, according to Anders Persson, Middle East expert and associate professor of political science at Linnaeus University.

– His status has fallen and he has had a more ceremonial role in Hamas, he says on Aftonbladet TV.

Hamas blames Israel for the attack and says it will not go unnoticed. Israel has not yet commented on the attack.

Everything indicates that it is Israel that is behind the attack, according to Lieutenant Colonel Anders Ekholm, who is active at the Norwegian Defense Academy and who visited Israel’s military, the IDF, during the war.

He tells TT that it appears to be Israel’s way of fulfilling promises of revenge.

– That promise was already made the day after October 7: you are “dead men walking”, we will take you all, he says.

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The Iran insider: No “restrained reaction”

That Israel has succeeded in carrying out this type of attack in Iran is nothing new, says Rouzbeh Parsi, program director at the Foreign Policy Institute’s Middle East and North Africa program.

– This underlines how, frankly, lousy the Iranian security services are at securing their own capital, he says.

On Tuesday, Israel carried out a drone strike against the stronghold of the armed, Iran-backed group Hezbollah in Beirut, Lebanon. The target was Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukar.

Rouzbeh Parsi finds it difficult to see the attacks of the past 24 hours as a “restrained reaction” from Israel.

– If Israel’s intention was to react in a way that was a mark, without the other party feeling compelled to react in turn, then killing one of the most important Hezbollah leaders in Beirut and then Haniya in Tehran within 24 hours was hardly the right tactic, he says.

“The stub to the dynamite box shorter”

There are many indications that Iran was “taken to bed” by the attack in the capital, according to Anders Persson, and it is currently unclear how Iran will respond.

– Now Iran’s Supreme Military Council will meet and I assume they will decide on the way forward, he says.

According to Persson, the attack could lead to further escalation of an “already very unstable situation”.

– Every time something like this happens, the path to the dynamite box gets shorter, says Rouzbeh Parsi and continues:

– In that respect, I would say that there is a very big risk that this will completely go awry.

Middle East expert Alexander Atarodi, former researcher at FOI, is on the same track.

– Every time something happens, we get closer to a gigantic volcanic eruption that we cannot protect ourselves from. This is definitely a giant step towards a major war, he tells TT.

What did the US know?

Ismail Haniya was responsible for Hamas’ part in the negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza. The fact that he has now been killed is raised by several experts as a major problem for the continued negotiations on a ceasefire.

“Forget all about the truce. Retaliation and escalation are central. I think we need to fasten our seat belts,” the former foreign minister also wrote Carl Bildt (M) on X during Tuesday morning.

One question that Rouzbeh Parsi raises is what the United States, Israel’s closest ally, knew about the attack in Tehran.

– If they knew about Haniya, all their signals that they are trying to hold back the contractors are just talk, he says and continues:

– If they did not know about it, because the Israelis did not inform them, then we have to worry about how little the Americans seem to understand how to exert pressure on Israel.