According to the Constitution, Emmanuel Macron is the only master on board when it comes to appointing the new Prime Minister. Now, a first trend is emerging and does not follow the results of the last legislative elections.
Since the results of the last early legislative elections and given the composition of the National Assembly after the victory of the New Popular Front, the President of the Republic has set himself the mission of finding a Prime Minister capable of gathering the support of at least 289 deputies, to ensure stability. The same applies to the ministers that the latter will then have to propose. Otherwise, the new government as a whole would be exposed to a motion of censure which, if voted for by more than half of the elected representatives, would lead to the overthrow of the ministerial team. It would therefore be necessary to start all over again. But one thing is certain, we will have to be patient. During his interview on France 2, on July 23, the Head of State announced that he would not appoint a Prime Minister and government before the end of the Olympic Games. A statement that is in line with the idea of a “political truce” desired by the President of the Republic.
The fact remains that if everyone takes sides and some advance on the nomination of a future Prime Minister, only the President of the Republic is able to appoint the head of government as provided for in Article 8 of the Constitution: “The President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister”. But his choice is constrained by other factors. If the 37-year-old senior civil servant, Lucie Castets, was designated by the New Popular Front to occupy the post of Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron has already firmly indicated that she will not be appointed Prime Minister, like any other personality with the ambition of leading a left-wing government. In fact, the Head of State has only one scenario in mind, that of appointing to Matignon the head of a coalition government, with majority support in the National Assembly.
A coalition with the Republicans?
Emmanuel Macron could therefore be tempted to move towards a coalition government between Renaissance and Les Républicains. The presidential camp at the head of the Ensemble coalition has 168 deputies while the right has 60, the two united groups would therefore have nearly 230 deputies and become the majority. The two political parties have already agreed on several projects since Emmanuel Macron’s re-election in 2022 and have made it possible to pass laws despite the relative majority of the presidential camp. A coalition therefore seems possible, but the right is reluctant to once again play the role of crutch for Macronist elected officials. Behind the scenes, Édouard Philippe, capable of bridging the gap between Macronism and the right, is trying to convince the Republicans. In addition, the presidential camp and the right have joined forces for the election of Yaël Braun-Pivet to the rostrum.
If such a coalition were to emerge, the Prime Minister could come from the Macronist camp, more specifically from the right wing, but also from a center-right party like Horizon or from the moderate right. The Republicans would set as a condition for a coalition the appointment of a right-wing Prime Minister without giving a name. The fact remains that some are positioning themselves, like Xavier Bertrand, who imagines himself at Matignon after having built a coalition involving the right, the presidential camp but also the left. And precisely, on Monday July 29, 2024, the current Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin did not fail to praise the LR president of Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand: “He is a politician with great competence”, he could “greatly serve France”. “I have my friends, but I am not the President of the Republic,” said the number 3 of the resigning government on France 2. Will this assumed push be enough to convince the “master of clocks”? Difficult to say for the moment.
Macron free to appoint whoever he wants to Matignon
Whatever the opposition says, they have no say in the appointment of the Prime Minister, which is the sole responsibility of the Head of State. Cohabitation does not change this rule, and no special measures are provided for in the Constitution in the event of cohabitation. However, there is a case law that has been valid since the first cohabitation of the Fifth Republic, which occurred in 1986 under the presidency of François Mitterrand. “The President of the Republic appoints whoever he wants. He must naturally place himself in conformity with the popular will. […] “I will have to address a personality from the majority to lead the government” declared the man who was the head of state.
This principle was respected during the other two cohabitations of the Fifth Republic. The previous cohabitations also confirmed the tradition of appointing the leader of the opposition, without this being an obligation. However, this is not really the path that Emmanuel Macron seems to want to take for the start of the school year. He could impose his choice of Prime Minister, and not appoint a left-wing personality, in line with the results of the last early legislative elections. For the time being, the resigning ministerial team, with Gabriel Attal as leader as the resigning tenant of Matignon, remains in place.
A choice forced by the threat of a motion of censure
If the law does not constrain the President of the Republic in the choice of the Prime Minister, the parliamentary majority can. Hence the demands and the positions of the different parties imagining themselves to win the election. Once appointed, the Prime Minister with his government is responsible to the Assembly and can at any time be overthrown by a motion of censure if he is not assured of the support of at least half of the elected representatives. The Constitution then provides for the forced departure of the head of government. This is why the Prime Minister is chosen according to the majority present in the hemicycle: without this he knows that he could be forced to resign if a motion of censure is voted.