Vice President Kamala Harris has the support she needs to be the Democratic nominee. And polls show her race against Donald Trump will be tight.
US Vice President Kamala Harris will indeed be the Democratic candidate for the November 5 presidential election. She is assured of the support of more than 2,500 party delegates, significantly more than the 1,976 needed to secure the nomination. However, she will not be officially nominated until August 9 and the formal counting of delegate votes.
Launched in the race for the White House only 4 months before the election, she has especially become a few days after the withdrawal of Joe Biden – who asked all Democrats to support her – the natural contender of her camp. Several liberal bigwigs, perceived as potential rivals, have also pledged allegiance to her. It must be said that the express campaign that is announced for her is forcing her camp to come together.
Now, Democrats have their eyes fixed on the results of the polls. And those carried out after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, demonstrate real momentum for Kamala Harris. TheQuinnipac survey of July 22 gives it 47% against 49% for Donald Trump. The survey Morning Consult of July 22 gives voting intentions of around 45% for the Democrat and 47% for the Republican, but an important element to note: Kamala Harris was six points behind until then, she is now only two.
But the poll trend is clearly in favor of Kamala Harris. Compared to Joe Biden’s candidacy, she is doing better in all categories of voters: African-Americans, Latin Americans, WhatsApps. She is recording a net gain among male voters and independent voters. She is also gaining 7 points among the least educated voters. According to this poll, moreover, Biden’s withdrawal seems to have sparked introspection among some Republican voters: 27% believe that Trump should be replaced as the Republican candidate, a figure that is on the rise.
As a reminder, the American election is played out state by state, each of them giving the candidates a batch of votes through the electors at the end of the vote. It is therefore the polls identified at this scale that are relevant to have a vision of the probable results of this American presidential election. And it is on this ground that the Democrats can have some hope: in the decisive states, the Swing States that can swing the election, Kamala Harris is doing better than Joe Biden, according to the New York Times. She is notably given the lead in the very strategic state of Virginia and is tied in Pennsylvania. Here is the map of projections of Democratic and Republican votes, updated daily:
Kamala Harris favorite among Democrats
Joe Biden’s vice president and running mate for a new term, Kamala Harris, is indeed a natural candidate. If only for questions of financing since the budget planned for Joe Biden’s campaign could be transferred to his running mate, a point that is already being debated and that the Republicans could try to counter in court. This rapid financial contribution would be a significant advantage because it would not be the case for another candidate, the American press has pointed out in recent days.
Kamala Harris raised $81 million for her campaign between July 21 and 23. This amount is only from small donors, according to her team, who specified that it is the largest fundraising carried out in such a short period of time by a candidate in all of American history.
Another advantage is the support she has within the party, and in particular that of its big figures like Barack Obama or the Clintons, Bill and Hillary. Their popularity and their possible commitment to her with a displayed support appear to be significant advantages when launching a quick campaign.
His age and his career as assets
The central question remains: Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trumpwith a convinced electorate and further strengthened by the consequences and the combative image displayed after the assassination attempt on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania? The American billionaire’s team has already sharpened its weapons against Kamala Harris: management of immigration, record in California where Kamala Harris was prosecutor, personality and unflattering nickname (“Laughing Kamala”, to mock her bursts of laughter, considered not a sign of seriousness)… The arguments are already ready.
Conversely, Kamala Harris has several aces up her sleeve to counter Donald Trump and turn the campaign around. Her personal journey is impressive and the vice president knows how to remind people of this. “I am the empirical proof of the promise of America,” she regularly explains, she the African-American from an academic background who became the first woman to be elected district attorney of San Francisco, before becoming attorney general of California from 2011 to 2017.
Her integrity, with her pedigree as a prosecutor, in the face of a Republican candidate who has already been convicted by the courts and is still being prosecuted in several cases, are shaping up to be campaign arguments, like her energy, already demonstrated in the Senate when she emerged as one of the faces of the opposition to… Donald Trump during the Republican magnate’s term.
Her energy but also her youth could end up seducing the Democratic camp. At 59 years old, the possible candidacy of Kamala Harris would send to oblivion the announced duel between the two seniors Biden-Trump, both over 80 years old. Enough to mobilize the Democratic electorate more? In polls published in recent days while a possible withdrawal of Joe Biden was already making headlines, in the event of a duel between Trump and Kamala Harris, the gap was only two points in favor of the Republican candidate. An insufficient margin for Trump before possible debates and speeches by his possible future opponent.