On July 8 and 9, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an official visit to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin. A decision that is difficult for the White House to understand: why is the leader of the world’s largest democracy traveling to Russia at the very moment when the Western world is in Washington for the NATO summit? A few days before this much-criticized visit, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell had tried to convince Indian Foreign Minister Vinay Kwatra to reschedule the meeting, according to the Washington Post.
In vain. In retaliation, the American ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, urged India, during a press conference, not to “take for granted the relationship” between the two countries. But can Washington bring the impossible Narendra Modi to reason? Christophe Jaffrelot, a French political scientist specializing in the Indian subcontinent and research director at Sciences Po, explores this question.
L’Express: How should relations between India and the United States be defined?
Christophe Jaffrelot: To borrow the phrase of the Italian communist leader Enrico Berlinguer (1922-1972), we could call them “parallel convergences”. The two states are – increasingly – on the same wavelength, but this does not necessarily imply a rapprochement between them. Certainly, there are more diplomatic exchanges between the two countries – as evidenced by the presence of India in the Quad, a four-party security cooperation involving the United States, Japan, and Australia. This alliance allows Washington to have relays of influence in the Indo-Pacific, facing China. Joint military maneuvers are also more and more frequent; trade in arms and military technologies is growing. The economic relationship is also strengthened: Bengaluru, the Indian Silicon Valley, is full of American companies.
However, the two nations are not allies, in the strict sense of the term. India remains very attached to its “plurilateralism”, another word for its non-alignment. Modi does not claim any affiliation – whether with the Chinese, Russian or Western camp. He keeps several irons in the fire – where there is fire… The multipolar world benefits India greatly, which increases its ties with all the poles. Instead of distancing itself from Russia, it remains close enough to it, to the point that Modi is making an official visit to Moscow – a real gift for Putin, who can thus emerge from his isolation. In addition, India has circumvented Western sanctions, which speaks volumes about its refusal to belong to the West. While claiming to be closer to the Americans, India is still just as little aligned with the United States…
Who does Modi message when he visits Vladimir Putin?
It is hard to believe that this is Biden. He is addressing Putin first, but also China, which remains India’s main obsession. The rapprochement between Russia and China worries New Delhi a lot and Modi is therefore trying to reassure Putin about his very relative proximity to Washington. For the Indian Prime Minister, it is also a way to avoid the rapprochement between Russia and Pakistan – a movement that is emerging in the background.
How important is this relationship with Moscow for New Delhi?
First, on the military level. India depends heavily on spare parts, training and technology transfers from Russia. India also needs its oil, which saves it billions of dollars. This relationship is also important for diplomatic reasons, as we have seen. It allows India to show that it does not depend on any pole. This is also the whole issue for New Delhi: to position itself as the leader of the “Global South”, as during the Cold War, with the non-aligned. Modi’s ambition is to impose itself as a camp in its own right against the West or China. This also applies in multilateral bodies where a country is worth one vote, such as the WTO. It is therefore better to multiply its allies there.
How does Washington manage this double-edged relationship?
Washington is increasingly uncomfortable with Indian plurilateralism. The US State Department spokesperson called Modi’s visit to Russia “tough news to swallow.” In normal times, the US would have less trouble accepting it, but in times of crisis, it poses a challenge to American diplomacy. After the bombing of the children’s hospital in Kiev, Modi issued a statement justifying his visit to Moscow, but the news was not well received by the White House.
Will India change its attitude? Nothing is less certain. Modi is so convinced that the United States needs India to counter China that he believes he is in a position to abuse it. When, last year, Modi was received as a guest of honor by President Macron for the July 14 parade, I published an op-ed in THE World indicating that the West in general, and France in particular, was taking a risky bet on India, a country whose government was increasingly less committed to democratic values. Since then, this diagnosis has been reinforced by the resilience of the relationship between India and Russia, but also by the expulsion of two French journalists last January. The West has written a blank check to India. We have unreasonable hopes for a country that cultivates equidistance and whose snubs we accept. In reality, India needs the West more than the other way around. In 2020, for example, during the tensions on the Sino-Indian border, the Americans provided the satellite images that India needed. But we continue to think the opposite.
Could the arrival of a Trump in the White House change the situation?
This risks upsetting a number of power relations. The proximity between Putin and Modi will first of all no longer be a problem, and this could facilitate dialogue between the three powers, at the expense of democracy. On the other hand, Trump’s obsidional nationalism risks causing problems on the commercial and migratory fronts. There is a very significant Indian immigration in the United States that Donald Trump may want to fight, to the detriment of understanding between the two countries. The impact of a Trump return to power is therefore likely to be mixed.
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