The smoke sometimes has the scent of the apocalypse. In the humidity of the Caledonian night, this Tuesday, July 16, an arson attack ravaged several buildings in the parish of Saint-Louis, in the heart of the commune of Mont-Dore, in the south of the archipelago. “In recent days, I have seen the mission buildings light up one after the other. First the presbytery, the house of the sisters Les Petites Filles de Marie, the parish halls… And finally, the church,” sighs Mgr Michel-Marie Calvet, Archbishop of Nouméa. The man of faith did not immediately “see” the events with his own eyes: stuck 12 kilometers from the parish, whose main road has just been cleared by the police, he was only able to see the damage on video.
For those who know New Caledonia, the symbol is heavy. Founded in 1860, the church was once nicknamed “the little Vatican” because of its spiritual influence in the region. “It is a sanctuary, a piece of the history of New Caledonia that is going up in smoke,” warns Roch Wamytan, pro-independence president of the Congress and grand chief of Saint-Louis. A symptom of out-of-control violence, the fire took place on the very lands of the tribe led by this key figure in the independence struggle. These outbreaks of fire are a response to the death of Rock Victorin Wamytan – his second cousin -, 38, killed by a GIGN retaliatory shot on July 10 while he himself was targeting law enforcement officers. “We are faced with an outpouring of violence,” continues Mgr Calvet. “The situation has completely gotten out of hand.”
Series departures
Since the start of the riots, triggered on 13 May in response to the constitutional bill on the thawing of the electoral body – since suspended –, the territory has been living to the rhythm of blockades, riots and fires. Two months later, the return to calm that the express dispatch of more than thirty squadrons of gendarmerie and CRS had suggested is still awaited. Today, fled by some of its inhabitants – Le Caillou has lost nearly 10,000 people since 2014 –, ravaged by the riots, New Caledonia is opening an uncertain chapter in its existence. The signal sent in the last legislative elections, where an independentist MP, Emmanuel Tjibaou, entered the Assembly for the first time in thirty-eight years, says a lot about the state of mind of part of the population.
“New Caledonia has lost thousands of people over the past fifteen years, tired of the instability. If we don’t restore order and reinject money into the economy, the destabilization will continue, believes Nicolas Metzdorf, MP for the 1st constituency and fervent defender of French New Caledonia. In the legislative elections, the separatists gained 10,000 more votes with an open electorate.” Understand, in this case: disgusted by the riots, capable of leaving, the “Caldoches” and metropolitans are leaving the archipelago, rebalancing the demographics in favor of the separatists.
The idea of independence
But what is the outcome? In Paris as in Noumea, it is difficult to come up with a detailed scenario, even if an idea is emerging. “It is the policy of the dead dog in the water,” fumes an observer close to the case. “We are living a tragedy, and each day that passes pushes away any possibility other than independence.” The word is pronounced with less and less embarrassment by the “caledologists”, this small circle of senior civil servants who are experts on New Caledonia. “The question is: under what conditions?” asks Milakulo Tukumuli, president of Eveil océanien. The last real period of French institutional instability took place in 1958, during the Algerian crisis. Sixty-six years later, New Caledonia is the new Algeria.” The representative of the island’s Wallisian and Futunian community likes shock phrases and well-crafted images. But the ravages suffered by the archipelago in recent weeks make the historical trauma it outlines more tangible every day.
Assessing the damage is a dizzying exercise: 650 companies damaged, 7,000 jobs lost by the riots, more than 2 billion euros of damage… “Companies have barely been compensated halfway by insurance, they are short of cash. In Noumea, people will soon no longer be able to eat their fill,” worries a source close to economic circles. A vague hope may have been born with Emmanuel Macron’s visit to New Caledonia on May 24, and the creation of a “dialogue mission” led by three senior civil servants who are experts on the issue. In the meantime, the dissolution of the National Assembly has happened, and the “Caillou” has lost its Parisian interlocutors. Its future is darkening and its ties with Paris are weakening.
High Commissioner to be replaced
The capital, focused on its own political pitfalls, no longer seems to be watching events in New Caledonia with anything but a distracted eye. Of course, the Elysée consults, inquires about the situation with elected officials in New Caledonia, its economic forces. Patrice Faure, Emmanuel Macron’s chief of staff and high commissioner in New Caledonia between 2021 and 2023, is monitoring the situation. During the inter-round elections, François de Keréver and Victor Blonde, respectively overseas and public participation, consumption and competition advisors at the Elysée, received a representative of the New Caledonian economic community. He was granted an hour and fifteen minutes, during which the man was able to develop a copious PowerPoint illustrating the scale of the disaster. “But the Caledonian crisis is not an issue that can be managed constantly by the Elysée. On the one hand, because the president does not have the time to devote himself to it on a daily basis, and then because Emmanuel Macron is not a calming factor in the archipelago,” believes Jean-Jacques Urvoas, former Minister of Justice and rapporteur in 2015 of the permanent information mission on the institutional future of New Caledonia. The resigning government is not making things easier, and is depriving the “Caledonian issue” of any political support.
The interlocutor representing the State on the ground, High Commissioner Louis Le Franc, is increasingly contested for his doctrine of maintaining order, judged alternately too timid – or not enough. “There has been talk for several weeks of replacing him, but finding the right profile is very difficult: he must have both a cop aspect as well as a very fine political side, estimates a person close to the case. These people can be counted on the fingers of one hand and have no desire to be High Commissioner in the mess that New Caledonia has become.” The rare pearl has however been found in recent days. She should have been appointed on Tuesday July 16 in the Council of Ministers – before being blocked by Gérald Darmanin with the appointments of the other prefects, collateral damage of the internal wars being waged in Paris by the members of the executive.
Loyalists and separatists divided
In the three-way tango – State, loyalists, independentists – that has been going on since the Matignon agreements in 1988, then in Noumea ten years later, the first is nowhere to be seen. Part of the second, designated by the ballot box, is opting for an increasingly radical discourse, like Sonia Backès, leader of the loyalist camp and former Secretary of State for Sovereignty in the Borne government. Abandoned by Paris and part of her camp – including the children of Jacques Lafleur, an emblematic figure of French New Caledonia – the president of the Southern Province went so far as to question the integrity of Emmanuel Tjibaou’s election. “The State did not allow this election to take place in a democratic and transparent manner,” she said on July 7, as soon as the second round of voting was announced. There was a new escalation a week later, during a speech given on Sunday, July 14. “The Kanak world and the Western world, despite more than 170 years of living together, have antagonisms that are still insurmountable,” she said, proposing “an institutional reform aimed at the autonomy of the provinces.” Part of the local political class is still indignant, stunned by this trial balloon in the form of a provocation. “Partition is not a solution for a country, it is its grave,” fumes Philippe Gomès, leader of the moderate party Calédonie ensemble, president of the government of New Caledonia until 2011. Sonia Backès is proposing apartheid.” Divided internally, the loyalists must therefore deal with a representative who is increasingly isolated in her own camp.
The least severe with the position adopted by the leader of the loyalists are, ultimately, her fiercest adversaries. “Everyone got angry with her, but I take it as a simple proposal,” tempers Roch Wamytan. “She starts from the principle that everything needs to be rebuilt. That’s not entirely true, but someone has to put their project on the table so that we can discuss.” Disconcerting Roch Wamytan, who appears ready for discussion even though the party of which he is a member of the steering committee, the Caledonian Union (UC), is calling for the independence of New Caledonia as of September 24, 2025. In June, its president, Daniel Goa, even called for it for September 24… of this year, encouraging “the unexpected and surprising resistance to the French special forces” of the Kanak youth who remained on the roadblocks. This internal cacophony within the Caledonian Union is a reflection of the rest of the pro-independence camp.
Worrying signs
Deeply divided, the various components of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), of which the UC is a member, cannot even agree on the date of its annual congress. Postponed from June to July, it will be postponed again from July to August. At the heart of the dispute is the participation in the discussions of members of the CCAT, the armed wing of the FLNKS suspected of having coordinated the blockades since May. Seven activists from the committee, including its leader, Christian Tein, are in provisional detention in as many prisons in France. Overwhelmed by their base, the pro-independence leaders are trying to stall. “The postponement of the FLNKS congress is the most worrying sign of recent months,” emphasizes Jean-Jacques Urvoas. “Without discussion between pro-independence supporters, it will be impossible for them to clarify their position, and therefore to arrive at the negotiating table with a common mandate.” Noted: while claiming “full sovereignty for Kanaky”, Roch Wamytan refuses for the moment to put forward any instructions for use, preferring to rely on the decision of a congress that is still awaited. In the interlude, the FLNKS is agitated, demanding “the immediate departure of French forces” from the archipelago despite the riots, or participating in a “congress of French colonies” organized in Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, New Caledonia is burning. “There is total uncertainty in Paris, the FLNKS refuses to hold its congress and to take a position, Sonia Backès and the loyalists are stuck on theirs,” summarizes Milakulo Tukumuli. With the framework of the Noumea Accord gone up in smoke after the third referendum, the Caledonians are looking for a new compass. With, this time, the feeling of an inexorable slide: that of a possible separation of France and New Caledonia, which Paris would necessarily have to manage. “The separatists are in the majority and they know it. That’s why they boycotted the third referendum, believes a contact in the entourage of the executive. They have not planned for the aftermath at all, and we need to talk with them, perhaps imagining an associated state status, which would leave New Caledonia very close to us.” In the absence of interlocutors, it is difficult, however, to find a solution. “I would like to remind you that there were three no votes in the referendums on independence,” Nicolas Metzdorf says angrily. “Today, the emergency is above all social. We have a territory that is becoming impoverished, that is suffering the consequences of the war without having the war.” Amid general indifference, New Caledonia is sinking into chaos.