Who will take Gabriel Attal’s place at Matignon? If the left seemed to have an advantage thanks to its relative majority in the Assembly, the re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet to the rostrum reshuffles the cards and suggests an alliance between the right and Macronie.
Discussions over who will be the new Prime Minister have been rife since the legislative elections. Although Gabriel Attal’s resignation was finally accepted by Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, July 16, the Prime Minister and his resigning government remain in office to take care of current affairs. Until July 18, all eyes were on the New Popular Front, which came out on top in the legislative elections, and which has since been trying to agree on a name to propose for Matignon. But since then, Macronist Yaël Braun-Pivet was re-elected as President of the National Assembly during the first plenary session of the hemicycle. This election, which took place in three rounds, highlighted a possible alliance between the presidential group and the Republicans.
If no political force has found a name or a definitive candidate for the position of Prime Minister, names are circulating and not just a few. On the left as on the right, contenders have made themselves known. But which ones are likely to gather an absolute majority or a number of elected representatives large enough to be able to avoid a motion of censure?
The hypothesis of a left-wing Prime Minister
The New Popular Front has become the most powerful group in the National Assembly in the early legislative elections of 2024, even though it does not have a majority. Buoyed by the results of the vote, the union of the left demands to govern and urges Emmanuel Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from its ranks. However, the various member parties of the union have not yet reached an agreement on a profile of a potential Prime Minister from their ranks.
After several weeks of negotiations, two names seem to stand out: Huguette Bello And Laurence Tubiana. The first, president of the regional council of La Réunion and a sympathizer of LFI, was proposed by the Communist Party, supported by the Insoumis, but not by the PS. On the one hand, her experience in the various French institutions was emphasized, and on the other hand, her absence from the Assembly during the vote for same-sex marriage in 2013 was denounced. Criticisms that pushed her to withdraw her candidacy. However, Olivier Faure always mentioned her name as a possibility on the microphone of BFMTV-RMC Thursday, July 18. Concerning Laurence Tubiana, her candidacy is supported by the socialists, but a signed column in Le Monde made her “Macron-compatible”, according to the Insoumis, who view her call to get closer to other parties with a negative eye.
There is also the possibility that another name could emerge from the New Popular Front, although none of those mentioned so far have achieved consensus. The Insoumis have proposed Jean-Luc Mélenchonwhich still divides the left, Clemence Guetté, Manuel Bompard And Mathilde Panot. Among the socialists, it was proposed Olivier Faure, Boris Vallaud Or Carole Delgabut the head of the socialists backtracked by proposing Laurence Tubiana. On the environmentalists’ side, several names are mentioned but without much chance of reaching Matignon, such as Marine Tonnelier, Cyrielle Chatelain, Cécile Duflot Or Yannick Jadot.
But a left-wing Prime Minister, regardless of the party he comes from, will not be able to remain at the head of the government if he does not obtain the support of a majority extending beyond the New Popular Front. While some personalities call for opening up to the left wing of Macronie and up to the maximum center-left, others oppose a coalition like LFI or the head of the PS who call for majorities by projects. Not only refusing alliances, the New Popular Front could suffer from dissensions between its own members: LFI and the PS have already mutually accused each other of deliberately prolonging negotiations to weaken the alliance.
The possibility of a coalition prime minister
The left being the majority group in the National Assembly, it could shelter the future Prime Minister, but if a coalition were to emerge and become the largest group in terms of the number of elected representatives, it would become a breeding ground for potential heads of government. And a coalition would have the advantage of strengthening the Prime Minister by making his ouster by a motion of censure more difficult, but still possible as long as 289 deputies are not united in the alliance. Several coalition scenarios are on the table:
- A coalition between Renaissance and Les Républicains: the presidential camp at the head of the Ensemble coalition has 168 deputies while the right has 60, the two united groups would therefore have nearly 230 deputies and become the majority. The two political parties have already agreed on several projects since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron in 2022 and have made it possible to pass laws despite the relative majority of the presidential camp. A coalition therefore seems possible, but the right is reluctant to once again play the role of crutch for Macronist elected officials. Behind the scenes, Édouard Philippe, capable of bridging the gap between Macronism and the right, is trying to convince the Republicans. In addition, the presidential camp and the right have joined forces for the election of Yaël Braun-Pivet to the rostrum. If such a coalition were to emerge, the Prime Minister could come from the Macronist camp, more particularly from the right wing, but also from a center-right party like Horizon or from the moderate right, why not an elected official like Aurelien Pradié ? The Republicans would set as a condition for a coalition the nomination of a right-wing Prime Minister without giving a name. The fact remains that some are positioning themselves, like Xavier Bertrand, who imagines himself at Matignon after having built a coalition involving the right, the presidential camp but also the left.
- A coalition between the New Popular Front and Renaissance: The presidential camp or its left wing could also move closer to the left on condition that LFI, which is part of the New Popular Front, is excluded from the coalition. A condition currently refused by a part of the left that is reluctant to join the presidential camp. This option has nevertheless moved away after the re-election of Yaël Braun-Pivet to the rostrum.
- A coalition ranging from the social-democratic left to the republican right: This is a scenario that the presidential camp and Emmanuel Macron are calling for in a letter addressed to the French people on July 10, but which seems difficult to envisage given the programmatic differences between the left and the right despite points of agreement.
The hypothesis of a technical Prime Minister
Without a majority and without a government agreement, another solution is to build a technical government led by a Prime Minister with little political influence and who can achieve consensus from the left to the right. The ministers would then be senior civil servants, economists, diplomats and specialists in each field rather than politicians. They would be responsible for running the country and its economy without introducing any major new measures or reforms while waiting for new legislative elections.
In this case, the appointment of a Prime Minister who is rather centrist or moderate on the left or right, and above all experienced in the role of “old sage”, holds the rope. Names like Dominique de Villepin Or Charles de Courson are good examples. There is also the possibility of an apolitical personality.
When will the Prime Minister be appointed?
The future Prime Minister will not be appointed for several days, and some believe it could even be weeks. Furthermore, since Gabriel Attal’s resignation did not mean that his successor would be appointed immediately, the Prime Minister will remain temporarily at the head of a resigning government to manage current affairs until the arrival of the new head of government and his ministers. This period could last as long as it takes to form a coalition or for Emmanuel Macron to think things over. Maintaining a resigning government until the end of the Paris Olympics seems possible, and preferable according to elected officials from the presidential camp. Others believe that the life of the resigning government could go well beyond that: until the opening of the next ordinary session of the National Assembly, i.e. until October 1. This hypothesis is raised by The world.