(Finance) – Positive interest rates, less fragmentation and structurally better asset quality will support the earning capacity of banks Italian in 2024 and 2025. This is the forecast for Italy contained in the new report by S&P Global Ratings dedicated to the 2024 Mid-Year Outlook for Global Banks, with a further specific focus on individual countries, including Italy. According to S&P, credit losses will increase only moderately from historically low levels and differences among Italian banks will become increasingly evident.
L’S&P Outlook for global banks remains stable. As of June 30, 2024, approximately 75% of banks’ rating outlooks were stable. This resilience stems from solid capitalization, improved profitability and from a quality of the active still good.
The economic slowdown expected in the second half of the year, with interest rates still high, will put a strain on business volumes, asset quality and financing conditions.
The report then pointed out that the different political elections in 2024 and the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and Hamas pose spillover risks, including market volatility. On the bright side, most banks’ earnings continue to benefit from high interest rates and limited credit losses.
THE commercial real estate markets (CRE) are still declining in some jurisdictions, especially in the United States, China and some European countries. The related credit losses They are increasing but should be manageable in most cases.
Credit divergence will continue. Pressure will remain more pronounced for non-bank financial institutions and entities with weak funding profiles or with greater exposure to geopolitical, political or commercial real estate risks.