Unsurprisingly, since the assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday, July 13, conspiracy theories have been multiplying on social networks. More surprisingly, however, these are not the prerogative of the Trumpist clan… “Fake blood. An upside-down American flag. I don’t buy it. Too perfect,” for example, posted on X the influencer Lakota Man, no less than half a million subscribers and a self-proclaimed Democrat. “One of the highlights of the US presidential campaign in recent weeks is the drift of part of the Democratic electorate and of Joe Biden’s campaign as a whole. It’s hard to see it from France, but quite surprisingly, it is being built as a mirror image of Trump’s campaign,” explains Anthony Mansuy, journalist at Society and author of The Dissidents (Robert Laffont, 2022) – an investigative book which aimed to understand the reasons why conspiracy theories have infiltrated the whole of society.
Speaking to L’Express, the journalist describes what he calls “centrist conspiracy theories”. Far from being a novelty in the United States (any more than in France), the rise of this form of conspiracy theories corresponds, according to him, to the need for some of Joe Biden’s supporters to avoid confronting the reality of a candidate showing in particular “signs of cognitive decline”. Interview.
L’Express: After the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, during a meeting held on July 13, you picked up on X the emergence of “centrist or liberal conspiracy theories”. What are they?
Anthony Mansuy : One of the highlights of the American presidential campaign in recent weeks is the drift of part of the Democratic electorate and of Joe Biden’s campaign as a whole. It is hard to perceive it from France, but surprisingly enough, it is being built as a mirror image of Trump’s campaign. The current president recently attacked the press at a rally during which his supporters also shouted “lock him up” when talking about Donald Trump. We also saw Biden get carried away against “the elites” in an interview at the beginning of July. Not to mention the deputy director of his campaign who used the expression “bedwetting brigade” to describe Democratic critics of Biden, including the actor George Clooney (who was later targeted by the campaign).
In short: the Biden camp has chosen to respond to criticism of its champion with offensiveness and hysteria, the “pros” against the “antis”. However, this kind of context is favorable to the emergence of conspiracy theories, because they serve to blur the candidate’s failings, thanks to what the Italian author Roberto Bui calls “diversionary stories”, and to provide scapegoats: viral posts have explained that Joe Biden was drugged without his knowledge before the disastrous debate on June 28, or that the ABC News channel had manipulated the sound of an interview to weaken him. And Seth Abramson, at the head of an influential account on X, even spoke of an “internal coup” to describe those who are asking Biden to step down.
Is this tendency, within the American Democratic fringe, to propagate conspiracy theories something new?
No. But in the West, the tendency to jump to conclusions and unproven theories has so far mainly concerned attempts at Russian interference. These are obviously to be taken seriously, because they represent a real and permanent threat to our information systems. However, the agitation of the Russian rag has also been used to disqualify certain stories that are contrary to the immediate interests of centrist or liberal politicians. Eight years after her defeat, despite a risky campaign, great unpopularity, and support for the invasion of Iraq that had already partly cost her the 2008 primary, Hillary Clinton still explains that she lost because of Russian interference.
Using a plausible scapegoat was a way for her and her camp to deflect criticism and avoid soul-searching. In Biden’s case today, the explosion of conspiracy theories corresponds to the need for some of his supporters to avoid confronting the reality of a candidate with a complicated political history, showing signs of cognitive decline and who, according to some, is not doing enough to prevent the massacres perpetrated by his Israeli ally.
Is it surprising that the “centrist” conspiracy theories you describe are emerging today?
We must distinguish between producers and consumers. On the consumer side, conspiracy theories are a profoundly human reflex, which appeals to our tribal and community instincts, to our ideological biases. No person, no social group or ideology is a priori spared by this mental mechanism. When their figures are in danger, or when they are threatened, producers use this “conspiracy potential in us” to mobilize the troops in order to explain a defeat, support a leader or discredit an adversary. It is not surprising that in unstable times, certain public figures usually considered “reasonable” indulge in it.
What does this phenomenon say about the concerns crystallizing within American society?
Today, left-wing and far-right politicians base their actions, to varying degrees of rationality, on speeches that announce the imminent end of our civilization. Meanwhile, the center and the right in power have dug in on a bloodless economic policy, the defense of weakened, sometimes rusty institutions, which are gradually disintegrating. The result? The idea is spreading that there is no more hope, no more positive common project, no other possible reality. No more alternatives, as Margaret Thatcher said. For many, the worst has already been done, the future has been confiscated, which leads to cultural and social desolation, depoliticization and apathy. It is in this disenchanted world – and this, whatever the political side – that some seek, with conspiracy theories, to restore meaning, find escape mechanisms or online communities.
Are you worried about the outcome of this American presidential election?
I don’t think we can fight political fantasies, disinformation and conspiracy theories by adopting their codes. It is still impossible to know whether the conspiracy theorist tendency of the liberals and the Biden camp will intensify, but I interpret it as an admission of weakness, even failure. The situation is so new and explosive that I will not risk making other predictions.
Are these “centrist” conspiracy theories the preserve of the United States?
This also exists in France, somewhat along the same lines as in the United States. The phenomenon was particularly evident in 2018, when some editorialists began to talk about links between Moscow or Trump and the yellow vests, as well as members of parliament from the former majority, and even in the mouth of Emmanuel Macron, who also said in an interview in early 2019 that some yellow vests had been “advised by foreigners”. Like Biden today, rather than confronting the infinite complexity of society and the consequences of unpopular measures, some members of the majority preferred to take refuge in a simplistic, binary story. We also saw surges in counter-narratives in 2007, when several presidential candidates accused TF1 of rigging the panel of viewers during a political show to the benefit of their opponents. Even at the time of the DSK affair, PS elected officials cried conspiracy. Jacques Attali, the ultimate voodoo doll of conspiracy theorists, had spoken of a “possible manipulation”.
Is this a crisis of rationality we are talking about?
I don’t see conspiracy theories as the opposite of rationality. In many ways, in wanting to connect disjointed facts and immediately provide them with a political interpretation, there is sometimes in conspiracy theories a form of excess of rationality. Sometimes, we simply don’t know what happened. There are those who accept uncertainty and vagueness, and others who refuse not to know. Those who want to explain everything, all the time, even in the absence of indisputable elements, and who find the confusion unbearable. In the case of the Trump assassination, everyone did the same thing, including me: spending hours on Twitter looking for the slightest new scrap of information, zooming in on photos without knowing whether they were authentic or not, formulating more or less crazy theories. Faced with this kind of historical event, we are all the same. On the other hand, those who can be described as “conspiracy theorists” are those who will set off on a political crusade based on elements that are far too meager to constitute a credible hypothesis.
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