NEW YORK Is it With Joe Biden any more chances to win the US presidential election?
– I don’t think so. Democrats are facing a man who took a bullet because of his convictions. And the Democrats themselves have an old man taking a nap.
This is what a Columbia University professor says in an interview with Mark Lillaan influential American thinker and self-described “old-fashioned liberal”.
He is known for the book The Once and Future Liberal (2017), in which he criticized the Democratic Party for replacing economic policy with identity politics.
According to Lilla, the Democrats are no longer competing against a person, but against a symbol. Bleeding in the photo taken after Trump’s assassination attempt Donald Trump defiantly raises his fist in the air, the star-spangled banner in the background.
Although Biden no longer has a chance, according to Lilla, the Democrats do.
– But it requires that Biden be replaced quickly.
– If we find a young and energetic person, for example the vice president Horrible Harriseven if he is not the best possible candidate, the elections are still winnable, says Lilla.
The assassination attempt increases Trump’s support
Trump’s assassination attempt will give new impetus to ousting Biden, Lilla believes, because it will increase Trump’s approval ratings.
– After that, it might be easier for those close to them to tell Biden that we need someone younger and more energetic.
Lilla’s opinion is supported by The New York Times and Siena College published after Trump’s assassination attempt opinion poll, which was made in the week before the assassination attempt. In the poll, Biden is struggling in two key swing states, and an assassination attempt is likely to boost Trump’s approval numbers even more.
According to the same opinion poll, Harris would do a little better than Biden against Trump in the swing states, although he is also behind Trump in popularity.
None of Biden’s options are perfect
Which of the Democrats would be the strongest candidate in Lilla’s opinion?
According to Lilla, the best option would be the governor of California Gavin Newsom, who is youthful and a good performer. The problem is that the state of California is in a bad mess, and Newsom has had a sideline.
Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer is a popular but not charismatic performer among Democrats. Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro would again be a moderate middle-of-the-road candidate, but his Jewishness could cause problems for the small “Hezbollah wing” of the Democrats, Lilla estimated.
– So we end up with Kamala, who stumbles on her words and giggles too much. But he is a former prosecutor who is at his best when championing the cause of Democrats and attacking Republicans. Maybe he’s the best there is.
It was crazy to hide the state of Biden’s health
Lilla has been watching the Democrats for a long time. How has the party ended up in such an impasse so close to the election?
– When Biden was elected, it was not known how quickly his health would deteriorate. People are risk averse, so they thought it best to stick with Biden and keep everything secret [hänen terveydentilastaan]. It’s crazy in retrospect.
The Biden administration has also been wrong in trying to convince the people that they cannot think the way they do. Even though the US economy is going strong, people don’t feel that way, and you have to listen to this feeling, says Lilla.
This is where Biden could learn from European politicians, says Lilla. Europeans admit their mistakes, Americans try to exaggerate their own achievements.
In addition, the Democratic Party has not been able to unite its ranks between its moderate and progressive wings. At Lilla’s workplace, on the Columbia University campus, students demonstrated against Israel in the spring and took over the building. In the end, there were a small number of usurpers, but because of them, the Democrats have been labeled an extreme party, Lilla regrets.
Europe must prepare for anything
If Trump wins the election, Lilla fears more for America’s allies than for the United States.
– Trump’s election means that Putin gets to the negotiating table with his friend. And that means Ukraine is suffering in different ways. But the war may end.
The biggest danger for Europe, Finland and NATO is that the United States either leaves NATO or at least no longer actively defends its allies. Trump and his running mate JD Vance have criticized US aid to Ukraine.
– If Trump is elected, don’t count on us. Make other arrangements for four years, Lilla warns.
– I think it is very important that the Europeans try to please Trump and that because of Trump they quickly increase their military expenses and prepare for anything.
– I wish I had nicer news for you on a beautiful summer day, but this is a dark summer.