The strengthening of Trump’s position has increased concern about new trade barriers and also the prospects of Finnish green transition companies.
Donald Trump’s the strengthening of the position in the US presidential race increases fears of a new stagnation in world trade.
Trump has threatened to impose a ten percent duty on all imports.
It would be a hard blow to Finnish companies that export to the United States. The blow is made worse by the fact that the United States has clearly become Finland’s most important export country.
A customs wall would make it difficult for Finnish companies to export to the United States, but it would also hit the Americans’ own ankles. Imported goods would become more expensive, which would mean additional costs of an average of $1,700 for a middle-class family.
Does Trump dare to raise the tariff wall, even if it costs Americans?
Nordea’s chief analyst Jan von Gerich believes that despite everything, Trump would be willing to restrict trade in this way to portray himself as the savior of domestic jobs.
– If Trump were able to protect the jobs of certain industries in the United States with tariffs, the price for these jobs would be quite high. It would mainly be paid by US consumers, says von Gerich.
Also Danske Bank’s research director Heidi Schauman believes that Trump is ready to build a tariff wall.
– I think he dares to do it, but to a limited extent.
Schauman estimates that, despite the election speeches, there will not be a tariff on all imports, because it would hit ordinary Americans “really hard”.
– Surely something targeted is planned, because it would be a signal to the rest of the world: the United States first.
According to Schauman, tariffs may be aimed at Asia and China instead of Europe.
Goodbye, green transition?
Trump’s and rival Joe Biden there is a clear difference in the attitude towards the green transition in economic views. Biden has created large support packages to promote the green transition, Trump has promised to tear Biden’s environmental legislation, if elected.
After Trump’s electoral position was strengthened after the assassination attempt on a European the values of shares in the wind power industry fell significantly.
According to Heidi Schauman, the stock market reaction has been hasty, because it is still not possible to know what kind of actions will be taken in the US in the end.
– Green transition companies may be in a slightly more vulnerable position if Trump wins. But go and find out because the green transition has been economically beneficial and brought good companies and jobs to the United States.
According to Jan von Gerich’s assessment, Trump’s election would not mean a complete revolution in the United States, although the difference to Biden’s line is clear.
– Trump will not be able to turn this movement around, but maybe he will be able to put a brake on the big change, says von Gerich.
Finnish companies, among others Neste is very interested about how renewable fuel regulations are developing in the US.
On the other hand, Kempower, which manufactures dish stations for electric cars, opened a new factory in the United States last year.
However, von Gerich reminds us of the differences between election campaigns and everyday life. Even in Trump’s previous presidency, at least the worst fears did not come true.
– It’s not a good idea to get too gloomy just yet, but yes, there is a potential for clearly negative effects here, says Jan von Gerich.
The US presidential election is almost four months away.