Will the thick fog that has been clouding the French political horizon since the early legislative elections finally clear? However, things could clear up this week, as the new National Assembly will sit from Thursday, July 18 and allocate the chamber’s key positions.
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A sign that this July 18 deadline is important, Emmanuel Macron should accept the government’s resignation in the coming hours. Attal government resignswould be confined to current affairs until the appointment of a new Prime Minister. A very important consequence is that the twenty or so outgoing ministers who also have a mandate as deputies will be able to sit in the National Assembly and participate in internal elections from Thursday.
The perch, a major issue for President Macron
On July 18, MPs will elect the president of the lower houseThe head of state believes it, and said it last week in a meeting with executives of the former majority, if a coalition is formed to elect someone from the central bloc to the rostrum, this means that a government coalition is possible.
However, things are looking complex: the election of the President of the National Assembly is done in three rounds: two by absolute majority, then one by relative majority. In the current configuration, three blocs and a small majority for the New Popular Front, we are heading towards the election of an NFP candidate in the third round.
Intense negotiations are therefore underway between the groups to limit the candidacies or anticipate possible withdrawals from one round to the next. For the president’s camp, Yaël Braun-Pivet is running to become the fourth person in the state again. However, allied parties, such as Horizons, also want to present candidates, at least in the first round.
This was without counting on the other groups, because Emmanuel Macron is not the only one who has made the presidency of the National Assembly an issue. The New Popular Front is actively working on a single candidacy with the aim of increasing pressure on the Élysée and force the appointment of a left-wing prime minister – whose name is still not known.
On the side of the National Rally, with no allies except the 17 deputies of Éric Ciotti, the perch seems inaccessible.
The future president of the Assembly could also come from another camp, from none of the three major blocs. Charles de Courson, belonging to the independent group, is for example a candidate.
Battle looms for other key Assembly posts
After the perch on Thursday, it will be a question of designating or electing – in the absence of an agreement between the groups – on Friday and Saturday, six vice-presidents, the committee presidents and the quaestors.
According to the rules of the National Assembly, the positions must be distributed proportionally to the composition of the chamber.
But as was the case between the two rounds of the legislative elections, an anti-RN front is being developed. The left does not want any position to go to the extreme right and the presidential camp wants none to fall into the hands of either the RN or La France Insoumise.
But this strategy, which would consist of not participating in certain votes, is divisive, in particular among the macronistsThe RN, the largest group in the Assembly with 125 deputies, should, in accordance with institutional practice, claim and obtain several positions, which is what happened in 2022.
New meeting on Saturday
In principle, once the key positions have been assigned, we will therefore have a more precise idea of the balance of power and the composition of the future government. Given the unprecedented configuration of the National Assembly, alliances of circumstance, explicit or implicit, will very probably have been formed.
The role of the traditional right, the Republicans, will be scrutinized. Now grouped under the banner of “The Republican Right”, the former LR deputies are already seducing part of the presidential camp. The still Minister of the InteriorGerald Darmanin sent a text message to Macronist MPs this morning, assuring that he was very interested in the legislative package announced by the leader of the right last week. Laurent Wauquiez refuses any participation in a government, but intends to propose a series of texts to Parliament, in particular for more authority, preventing tax increases and cleaning up public finances. It remains to be seen whether the entire presidential camp will be won over.
In the coming days, the situation, which has been extremely unclear for some time, could either become clearer or become even more complex.
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