Ukraine’s population could plummet from 37 to 15 million by the year 2100, according to a new forecast from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
– This is one of the worst prophecies for our country. It was probably made with the war and the lack of population policy measures in mind, Oleksandr Hladun, deputy head of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography and Social Studies, told the newspaper Pravda.
Ukraine has never in the country’s history had so few, healthy men under the age of 30 as they have now. This was reported by the New York Times last spring.
It is also reflected in the UN’s latest population forecast, which states that the country is believed to have less than half as many inhabitants by the year 2100.
The UN does not write in detail in the forecasts what a population increase or decrease is due to, but it is broadly about birth rates, mortality and migration.
“A warning”
Oleksandr Hludan, deputy head of Ukraine’s Institute of Demography and Social Studies, believes the war has a bearing on the UN’s forecast but says at the same time that such long-term forecasts are very uncertain.
– Long-term forecasts should be seen as a warning, what the development of events can lead to in terms of birth rates, mortality and migration. In my view, the most bleak long-term forecast for Ukraine is a population decline to 25 million. But even if the population begins to decrease rapidly, it will be replaced by people moving here from other countries, he told Ukrainian Pravda.
Increase in Sweden
In the shorter term, the population is believed to increase slightly, to approximately 40 million in 2026 – but then it slowly turns downwards. And if that trend continues, Ukraine is thought to have roughly 40 percent of its current population by 2100.
For comparison, Sweden’s population is believed to increase during the same period, to 11.3 million from today’s 10. Globally, the population is believed to increase from eight to ten billion.