He has been ruling the country for thirty years, and is expected to run for another seven years. Paul Kagame – of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) – is the favourite in the presidential election which is being held this Monday, July 15, at the same time as legislative elections. The all-powerful president has been at the head of Rwanda since the end of the Tutsi genocide in 1994.
The scenario seems known in advance: the presidential election pits the same three candidates against each other as in 2017, when the outgoing head of state won with 98.79% of the vote against the leader of the only authorized opposition party, Frank Habineza (0.48%) and the independent Philippe Mpayimana (0.73%).
Paul Kagame, 66, has held the reins of the country firmly in his hands since he overthrew the extremist Hutu government in July 1994, along with the RPF rebellion, which instigated the genocide that left 800,000 dead, according to the UN, mainly among the Tutsi minority. First vice-president and minister of defence but de facto leader of Rwanda, Paul Kagame has officially been its president since 2000, elected by parliament after the resignation of Pasteur Bizimungu, then three times by universal suffrage (95.05% in 2003 – 93.08% in 2010 – and 2017).
“Severe restrictions” on opposition rights
He enjoys strong popularity for having revived the country, which was bloodless after the genocide and is now presented by some Western and African leaders as a model of development. Rwanda’s solid growth (7.2% on average between 2012 and 2022) has been accompanied by the development of infrastructure (roads, hospitals, etc.) and socio-economic progress, particularly in the areas of education and health.
But Paul Kagame is also accused of silencing critical voices of the government. The electoral commission invalidated the candidacy of an anti-Kagame voice, Diane Rwigara, because of non-compliant documents. She had already been excluded from the last presidential election, accused of falsifying documents and arrested, before being cleared by the courts in 2018.
Two opposition figures, Victoire Ingabire and Bernard Ntaganda, were also barred from running for president due to past convictions. The courts rejected their requests to have their civil rights restored. In a statement, Amnesty International denounced the “severe restrictions” on the opposition’s rights, as well as “threats, arbitrary detentions, trumped-up charges, killings and enforced disappearances.”
The three weeks of campaigning were dominated by Mr. Kagame and the RPF, whose portraits and red-white-blue colors are plastered across the country. His rivals are virtually invisible, even if Mr. Habineza welcomed a more peaceful context than in 2017, even assuring that he had received “massive support” from the population. Mr. Mpayimana acknowledged that he was facing an opponent who was “too strong.”
Final results on July 27
For the first time, the presidential election is being combined with the legislative elections. More than 500 candidates are running for the 80 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. Voters will elect 53 directly. Currently, the RPF has 40 out of 53 seats and its allies 11 (Social Democratic Party, Liberal Party, Social Imberakuri Party). Mr. Habineza’s Green Democratic Party has two deputies. The other 27 seats are reserved by quota for women, young people and the disabled.
They will be awarded on Tuesday to candidates not running under any partisan banner: 24 women will be elected by municipal and regional councillors, two young people by the National Youth Council and one disabled person will be designated by the Federation of Disabled Persons’ Associations.
The vote count will begin immediately after the vote closes and partial results will be announced as the count progresses, until provisional results are announced on July 20, a source within the electoral commission told AFP. The final results will be announced on July 27.