Just hours after the tragic act at the campaign rally, in which one bystander died and two were seriously injured, much remains unclear. And the motive of the perpetrator plays a big role in how the shooting may affect the continuing presidential election campaign.
“Some Republicans are already claiming that President Joe Biden’s rhetoric is to blame for this shooting, without having any evidence for it,” writes Chris Galdieri, a political scientist at Saint Anselm College in the state of New Hampshire, in an email to TT.
Photo: TT
Dennis Goldford, professor emeritus of political science at Drake University in Des Moines in the US state of Iowa, is on the same track.
“Even now, just a few hours after the shooting, I’m starting to see various conspiracy theories on social media that the shooting was a hoax or that it was orchestrated by Democrats,” he says.
Chris Galdieri believes that Donald Trump, during the Republican convention that begins on Monday, will try to show himself as a strong and decisive leader after the incident – in the same way he did when the pandemic broke out during his presidency.
“More nasty and cruel”
Even Dennis Goldford believes that the act will increase the Republicans’ support for Trump – but also that it can increase the divides in an already polarized political landscape.
“This risks making the entire election even more nasty and cruel than it has been so far,” he says.
In the long run, it might even affect the election results by getting more people to the polls and voting.
— Voter turnout is all that counts in an election, says Dennis Goldford and adds:
— An event like this could further motivate and fire up those who are already leaning toward Trump, which could increase turnout and help him.
Could influence Biden
At the same time, it could put a damper on the already divided Democrats – and further increase demands for the resignation of Joe Biden.
— If the tone of the election campaign becomes even harder and angrier than it is now, there may be some Democrats who ask themselves whether Joe Biden is the right candidate in such an environment, or if they need someone tougher? says Dennis Goldford.
— Those who already question whether he can win against Trump and believe that the Democrats need a younger and more energetic candidate can get more water to their mill.