It’s crazy how the dissolution has really clarified everything! This second five-year term is definitely like no other. The last reshuffle with Gabriel Attal at its head is already far away, the European elections are barely over when the president decides to call legislative elections. With the result that we know… More than ever, behind the scenes, some are learning to dodge the trip-ups, others are familiarizing themselves with the art of conspiracy, in short, everyone is preparing for the post-Emmanuel Macron era with rigor and determination.
Hollande and his former rebels: the great reconciliation
Strange scene in the Victor Hugo room, at the National Assembly on Wednesday, July 10. It was here that in 2014 the first socialist rebels were born and spoke out openly against the direction of the Hollande five-year term. They refused to vote for the confidence of the Valls 1 government. Among them, Laurent Baumel and Jérôme Guedj, re-elected as deputies on July 7 alongside… François Hollande. All’s well that ends well: the rebels of the time have forgotten everything, even saluting the words of the former president on July 10 in front of the PS group.
“The only question that is being asked, and the one that is bothering the left: do we want to govern or not?”, Hollande asked. “With the New Popular Front, we are not in the majority, but if we do not claim to govern, we leave it to others. We must propose a Prime Minister who is acceptable in three ways: by the partners, by the National Assembly and by the President of the Republic. Neither LFI nor the ecologists meet these three conditions,” he added to loud applause, before concluding: “we absolutely need a socialist. Any other name is a renunciation of governing.”
Ex gets unexpected phone call
But who is Emmanuel Macron talking to? The socialists, social-democratic tendency, still can’t believe the silence of the Élysée. Nothing, not a phone call or even an emissary from the president to “make contact” with the socialists, reinvigorated during these legislative elections. Even François Hollande, the former president who had Emmanuel Macron as a collaborator (and then minister), received nothing… Or maybe he did? On Wednesday, the former head of state received a call from Patrice Vergriete, the Minister Delegate for Transport. Although he is not the most influential of the Macronie bigwigs, he tried to find out if it was possible to consider discussions with Renaissance (meaning spoils of war towards Macronie).
On the other end of the line, a smile from Hollande reminds him that he was elected under the banner of the New Popular Front and does not intend to give it up. It is impossible to know if Vergriete was acting on orders. “If that is the case, then Emmanuel Macron has not understood anything,” laments a friend of Hollande, before ironizing: “You do not treat a former president by sending someone as uninfluential as Vergriete.”
The President’s “Strike”
Emmanuel Macron? His ministers are the ones who talk about it best. The latter has an important position in the Attal government, he notes: “The president has deeply disappointed his camp with the dissolution; RN voters feel like they were robbed of victory after the first round; left-wing voters today feel like they are being robbed of victory. It’s a strike!”
Macron: the shadow of resignation
The day after the second round, Emmanuel Macron brings together his ministers. Two lines clash (again) on the subject of the attitude to adopt in the event of a left-wing government. Aurore Bergé pleads for “not letting them breathe for a second”. And the Minister for Gender Equality reminds us: “The elected representatives of the left explained to us that we had brutalized the government, and they are going to do everything by decree. So we have to stick motions of censure on them!” While several participants seem to approve of this position, Stéphane Séjourné has reservations. “I am against the motion of censure right away,” the Minister of Foreign Affairs tells Emmanuel Macron. “We have to let them demonstrate their incompetence. We have to let them, otherwise we will create instability and they will demand your resignation.” A scenario that worries more than one minister…
Philippe: speed up, just in case…
Edouard Philippe does not like to improvise – this is one of the reasons why he hated this dissolution. So the former Prime Minister is now preparing to accelerate the timetable for the next presidential election, just in case… “There is a real probability that this mandate will not come to an end, notes one of his close associates, Christophe Béchu. We cannot therefore exclude the possibility that an election will take place by the beginning of 2025. Or after another dissolution: the first is free, the second is fatal.”
Barnier, a philanthropist at Matignon?
Since the second round of the legislative elections, offers of service have multiplied in an attempt to secure a few deputies from the Republican right to the former presidential majority. Michel Barnier is one of the self-appointed “negotiators”. “He is very appreciated and respected by the LR deputies, especially the new ones,” certifies a minister from the right. “He has one of the finest CVs in the Republic.” So he gets busy, makes phone calls, talks with Bruno Le Maire, François Bayrou, Valérie Pécresse, all in constant contact with Gérard Larcher. With the aim of blocking a majority and therefore a left-wing Prime Minister.
For this, Barnier refuses to speak of a coalition but prefers the expression “programmatic alliance”, which has the merit of being reassuring for a constructive right fearing to be swallowed up by the presidential camp in the event of a government agreement. Present at the Aix-en-Provence Economic Meetings on the weekend of July 6 and 7, the former minister was, according to a participant, very affable, exchanging with one and all, also multiplying the secret meetings. And what if this surge of philanthropy led Emmanuel Macron to appoint him to Matignon? “Barnier is a guy respected by Macronie because he is a pro-European, says a Macronist from the early days. He is a guy from the right of the left.” Triple advantage for one man. From the dissolution, observers of Macronism remember one thing: with this president, anything can happen.
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