Columnist at Financial Times since 2006, after fifteen years spent at The Economist, Gideon Rachman is one of the leading experts on international politics. Two years ago, he published The Age of the Strongman, analyzing the wave of “strong men” who have taken power over the past twenty years. For L’Express, the British journalist compares these French legislative elections to the shock of Brexit, at the very moment when the British voted for stability, in the person of Keir Starmer, a “boring” but centrist politician. Interview.
L’Express: Can these legislative elections in France be compared to the shock of the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom in 2016?
Gideon Rachman: There are very clearly common points between these events. Both represent first of all an anti-elite vote. In the United Kingdom, the rich metropolises were opposed to Brexit, while the rural and peripheral areas voted for it. This pattern is repeated in France through the vote for the RN. But there is also the idea that things cannot get worse and that we can therefore take the gamble of leaving the European Union or voting for the extremes, when we know very well that in reality things can still get much worse.
The irony is that when we British voted for Brexit, you French looked at us with pity, wondering how we could make such a crazy decision, which was clearly going to harm our economy. Today, we have just elected Keir Starmer, a very boring but pragmatic and centrist politician. The period of political chaos that began with the Brexit vote in 2016 may have ended. While you French are experiencing your own Brexit with this period of political instability that is beginning, perhaps for a long time. The calm that reigned in London on election night last week was in any case a stark contrast to the feverish atmosphere that reigned in Paris on Sunday night…
“European nationalisms will inevitably come into conflict with each other”
What could this mean for Europe?
Brexit was a much more binary situation: either we stay in the EU or we leave. Once the exit was done, we knew that the consequences for the UK would be significant. But today, the situation is much more uncertain in France. The French far left and far right are much more supportive of Putin’s Russia than Emmanuel Macron is. Macron has put forward an ambitious vision for the future of Europe. But the French president’s ability to claim intellectual leadership of Europe is now very much at risk given his political difficulties at home. France is on the verge of turning in on itself, and it may be many months before it has a government that can provide a coherent response to European issues. This will be a problem for the whole of the European Union.
The question is also whether the RN intends to implement its most controversial policies if it ever comes to power. Marine Le Pen has already backtracked on the single currency, ceasing to mention leaving the euro. But part of her program represents a clear violation of community rules: refusal of the primacy of European law, discrimination on the labor market, restoration of border controls that violate the Schengen agreements, desire not to act to reduce public deficits while France is already not respecting the stability pact… We have seen how difficult it was for the European Union to impose its rules on Viktor Orban’s Hungary, a country with less than 10 million inhabitants that is highly dependent on European funding. How will she do it with a much more powerful state? The Union could survive without Hungary, but it is impossible without France.
More generally, the far right in Europe today aims to acquire enough weight within the European Council, between France, the Netherlands, Italy and perhaps even Germany with the AfD, in order to return to a Europe of nation states, rather than leading a supranational integration. But that would destroy the current EU, and in particular the common market. All the more so since we must not forget that these states, even all led by far-right governments, have different interests. Nationalisms will inevitably come into conflict with each other. Because if they all agree on the fact that they do not like immigration and European supranational law, they also have profound disagreements. Hungary still covets a part of the territory of Romania as well as Ukraine. France and Italy already do not agree on the subject of migrants. A Germany freed from community constraints would arouse fears among its neighbours… It is precisely to put an end to these national rivalries that the European Union was built…
Can we imagine a “Liz Truss” scenario, as Bruno Le Maire has repeated? The British Prime Minister had been forced to resign by the financial markets in 2022…
The euro is both an insurance and a constraint for France. The eurozone is large, and a financial panic, as we saw with the British pound during Liz Truss’ short term, seems much less likely. The crisis of confidence will be expressed more through the OAT-Bund spread, that is to say the difference in rates between French and German ten-year government bonds, which would make the repayment of the French debt more expensive in the long term, with increasing fiscal pressure on the country. The promises of the New Popular Front and the RN on the subject of pensions could not be implemented, and austerity would be required. So yes, the situation could become very complicated for France…
Can power moderate extremist parties? In Italy, Meloni surprised by taking Mario Draghi as an advisor and adopting pro-European positions. But today, she aims to change the Italian Constitution to strengthen the role of the executive…
Often, these populist leaders begin their term in office in a moderate manner, before becoming radicalized in power. We saw this clearly with Trump. Lacking experience in government, they have to rely on the existing state machine. In France, the RN has also understood that it cannot afford to scare the markets, because it knows that its project can quickly be undermined in the event of a financial crisis. It has therefore done everything to normalize the idea of a National Front government. But, once the populists are well established in power, the tendency is towards radicalization. As you point out, we see this today with Meloni in Italy, and it was very evident with Viktor Orban in Hungary.
According to you, centrists and liberals are today in a “state of panic” because of the French election and especially the probable return of Donald Trump to the United States. Are the fears of a democratic decline in the West well-founded?
The decision of the American Supreme Court to grant presidential immunity to Trump further reinforces these legitimate concerns. On the liberal side, there was premature triumphalism, with the election of Emmanuel Macron in 2017, that of Barack Obama in 2008 or the London Olympics which celebrated British multiculturalism in 2012. Today, let us not give in to defeatism. It is just as excessive to estimate that we have fallen back into the 1930s, incapable of stopping anti-democratic forces. Let us keep in mind that populism is not limited to Western democracies like France or the United States. In more recent democracies, populist parties have been able to take power, before losing it, like Bolsonaro in Brazil or the PiS in Poland. Even in India and Turkey, Modi and Erdogan, who seemed unshakeable, suffered electoral setbacks, even though democratic systems are already damaged in these countries, with weakened justice and independent media. Nevertheless, the elections have made it possible to push back these “strong men” a little.
You, French people, must not think that even if Marine Le Pen one day comes to power, it would mean the end of French democracy and the transition to a dictatorship. In all probability, the RN will fail in power. There will be other elections to come, and in the meantime the independent media will do their job.
“Macron still represented France well on the international stage”
What mark will Emmanuel Macron leave as president, as he emerges weakened from these legislative elections?
Today, his record obviously looks bad. But some of his economic reforms have borne fruit. Unemployment has fallen, foreign investment has risen. The British now see the French as real rivals in financial services. On AI, too, you have made remarkable progress. So the business community has a rather positive image of Macron. Of course, many French people feel that they have not benefited from this. His style has irritated. But it seems to me that all French presidents have ended up annoying your compatriots. [Rires.]
On the European level, Macron’s legacy remains weak today, even though he has made strong speeches on the subject. The Covid crisis has certainly allowed a strengthening of federalization with an unprecedented recovery plan. But in general, as Macron has never been able to establish a real working relationship with Germany, which is nevertheless essential, his record is disappointing.
Finally, on the international level, Macron has been one of the smartest and most imaginative leaders, one of the few with charisma, compared to an Olaf Scholz or a Rishi Sunak. But his initial rapprochement with Putin’s Russia was a mistake. He also failed with Trump. With Xi Jinping too, he went from one excess to another, sometimes presenting China as a threat, other times hoping to build a special relationship with it. But in the end, Macron still represented France well on the international stage. He was recognized and listened to.
As you pointed out, Keir Starmer has just won the UK election by a landslide. In the end, wouldn’t a “boring” leader be the best news for a democracy?
For me, boredom is very exciting. [Rires.] We have had too many spectacular leaders, like Boris Johnson or Liz Truss. Nearly 70% of Britons now consider that Brexit was a mistake. They are ready to return to a more centrist and boring politician. Conversely, France finds itself today in a much more adventurous situation, with both the far right and the far left gaining ground, and a Parliament that is deadlocked. No doubt, in a few years, you too will wish to return to normal…
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