Can France emerge from the imbroglio created by these legislative elections by temporarily equipping itself with a “government of experts”? In other words, is technocracy a substitute for politics at the present time? The supporters of such a solution invoke the Mario Monti interlude (November 2011-December 2012) during which the Italian economist led the country, surrounded by sixteen “technician” ministers, during the great sovereign debt crisis of the eurozone.
Invited last weekend to the Economic Meetings of Aix-en-Provence, the former European Commissioner, aged 81, spoke at length about this experience. At the risk of disappointing his fans, he mainly noted notable differences between the two periods and the two countries.
No excessive risk premium
First, “the economic situation in France is not as dramatic as that of Italy at the time,” points out Mario Monti. In July 2011, the spread (Editor’s note: the rate difference) between Italian debt and German debt at 10 years was already considered high, around 100 basis points. This gap widened throughout the summer, despite the purchases of Italian securities by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Italy. At the beginning of November, the spread had increased to 574 points, the equivalent of 7% interest rates for Italy. Beyond this threshold, experts considered that the economic consequences could become irreversible.”
Following the resignation of the Berlusconi government, the President of the Republic Giorgio Napolitano, after consulting the parties, then tasked Mario Monti with forming a government of experts, with a single mandate: to get Italy out of the financial crisis. France is not there today. Despite a public deficit that dangerously swelled last year – 5.5% of GDP, behind that of Italy (7.4%) but far ahead of that of Germany (2.5%) – and the downgrading, at the end of May, by the rating agency S&P of its sovereign rating, France is not yet considered by the financial markets as potentially insolvent, which would justify an excessive risk premium. Yesterday morning, the spread between the French OAT and the German Bund was around 70 basis points, its level of last week before the second round. The political uncertainty linked to the final result of the legislative elections has therefore not, for the time being, caused any excitement on the markets.
Endorsing unpopularity
The second reason why comparison is not reason is due to the stature of the actors. “Giorgio Napolitano enjoyed enormous credibility in the country when he proposed my name. I myself had, due to my ten years spent at the European Commission, economic credibility”, recalls Mario Monti. Before using understatement: “The President of the French Republic is not in the strongest moment of his mandate…” However, the characteristic of a “technical government” and its promoters is to capitalize on their good image in the public eye to endorse unpopular measures, right down to the dregs, in place of the traditional parties.
In 2011, Italians experienced three successive austerity plans, the last of which, called Save Italyset the tone of urgency. On the menu, a two-year freeze on civil servant salaries. A reduction in the number of civil servants, ministerial budgets, and health spending. And above all, an increase in the legal retirement age from 65 to 67. A pension reform completed in two weeks (!) by Elsa Fornero, another economist, appointed to the Ministry of Labor, and which led, in all, to two hours of strike action… For good measure, the Monti team also attacked the totem of the right, wealth, with the creation of a wealth tax and the strengthening of the fight against tax evasion.
Current affairs
A French-style “government of experts” would obviously not be called upon to take such politically inflammatory measures in the current period. So what’s the point? If it is only a matter of managing current affairs, a resigning government has the authority to deal with them, according to a traditional principle of public law. The Council of State has defined its contours. In the words of government commissioner Delvolvé, current affairs are “those that fall within the daily and continuous activity of the administration, decisions that are automatically prepared every day by the offices, over which ministers usually limit themselves in fact to exercising simple control and affixing their signature.” In short, all decisions that are clearly not of a nature to provoke parliamentary control and engage ministerial responsibility. In the event of a challenge to these administrative acts, the final word rests with the Council of State, which can annul them due to the incompetence of the executive authority.
In short, the terrain is known and legally bordered. Emmanuel Macron could be satisfied with it, while waiting, as the Elysée indicated, for the “structuring of the new National Assembly”. How long? Under the Fifth Republic, no period of dispatch of current affairs lasted more than 9 days after legislative elections. But as Mario Monti recalled, in conclusion of his conversation in Aix, there is today, in France, “space for imagination”.
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