The New Popular Front (NFP) came out on top in the early legislative elections. The result of a real republican front that was set up across the country to prevent the National Rally from coming to power. A huge surprise, first and foremost for the alliance of the left and the ecologists. But the hardest part is starting for the NFP.
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5:30 p.m. at the Rotonde, in the northeast of Paris. Faces are closed at the election night organized by La France Insoumise (LFI), even if LFI wants to continue to believe in its lucky star. Rightly so, because when the first estimates start to come in, it’s shocking.
Val-d’Oise MP Paul Vannier is in discussion with a group of journalists when the numbers are displayed : he has a hard time believing it. Then he sketches a smile before rushing to the upper floor of the building where the movement’s leadership is gathered. There, Jean-Luc Mélenchon rewrites the speech he had written in the event of a victory for the National Rally (RN). At the same time, the phones start heating up between the usual negotiators of the New Popular Front. The power is at handbut the road is winding.
First challenge for the NFP: avoiding implosion
The first pass to be crossed by the NFP is that of internal cohesion. Because the message sent on the evening of July 7 – the date of the second round French legislative elections – is not very encouraging: how will an alliance that cannot agree to organize a joint election night set up a government cabinet?
Tied in urgency, the alliance of the left and the ecologists was not necessarily destined to survive the legislative elections, but the situation has changed, without erasing the cracks that have been crudely concealed over the last three weeks. What do Raphaël Glucksmann’s Place publique movement and the France insoumise (LFI) of the neo-deputy and anti-fascist activist Raphaël Arnault have in common?
The solution may lie in the rebalancing of forces within the NFP. When the Nupes, the former form of the alliance in 2022, was composed of 50% LFI deputies, they are now only a large third in the New Popular Front, closely followed by the socialists. We must also take into account the Insoumis dissidents, who no longer intend to sit with the Mélenchonists.
” We need to work on the structuring “, explains an environmental leader, that is to say on this balance of forceswith a France Insoumise which is undoubtedly less powerful, but certainly no less demanding, and a Socialist Party (PS) which intends to be the driving force behind the NFP.
Plate tectonics at the Assembly
” Structuring “, is also the term used by Emmanuel Macron on Sunday evening. The head of state understood that it was necessary to wait to see the dust settle. Is there a path to a grand coalition left-right, as the Elysée hopes? Unlikely given the statements of the NFP, which does not want a ” coalition of opposites “But any fractures within the NFP will be watched closely by the presidential camp, which is well aware of the cracks that are already present and ready to exploit them.
However, beware of the opposite effect: Emmanuel Macron has deeply divided his camp with the dissolution, and many of the re-elected Ensemble deputies come from the center-left. The NFP could therefore try to seek support in the presidential alliance and thus act as an end to the ” at the same time ” Macronian. It is still necessary for the left and the ecologists to be ready to open up to other forces. The identity of the NFP candidate for the post of Prime Minister will undoubtedly give a first clue.
PS leader Olivier Faure indicated that he wanted him to be designated by the end of the week. The Insoumis have however warned: considering themselves to still be the first force in the alliance, it is from their ranks that the Prime Minister must be chosen and ” Jean-Luc Mélenchon is absolutely not disqualified ” for the position, hammered home LFI MP Mathilde Panot. The consultations between NFP leaders in the coming hours are therefore likely to be tough.
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