Beware of comments that age badly. It was Thursday, July 1st, the day after the first round of the legislative elections. A guest on TF1’s 8pm news, Raphaël Glucksmann, the third man in the recent European election, stated with the faith of a coal miner: “Let’s be direct, let’s be sincere: there will be no left-wing majority in the National Assembly.” The only question that prevailed at the time was the following: “Do you want the far right in power in France, yes or no?” How can we blame him? After the results of June 30th, many on the left saw the second round of this election as a simple barrier to a possible absolute majority for the National Rally. To sweep aside, half-heartedly, the hope of the New Popular Front’s accession to power. And yet. On Sunday, July 7, the “republican front”, which the left ardently defended by demanding systematic withdrawals, proved to be devilishly effective. Here is the National Rally relegated to third place behind the presidential coalition. And behind it, the alliance of the left, which won these elections.
The New Popular Front won 182 seats. Not enough to convert the victory into an absolute majority (289 deputies), but enough to demand to form a government. “The president has the duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern,” claimed Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the first to speak after the first results. And added: “No subterfuge, arrangement or combination would be acceptable. Indeed, the lessons of the vote are clear. The defeat of the president and his coalition is clearly confirmed. The president must bow.” Olivier Faure, for his part, agrees: “The New Popular Front must take charge of this new page of our history,” promising never to lend itself to “coalitions of opposites.” Marine Tondelier, head of the environmentalists, also congratulates herself: “Tonight, social justice has won. Tonight, environmental justice has won. Tonight, the people have won.” And to warn: “Tonight is not the time for posturing, ukases or horse racing. […] Nor is this the time to propose a Prime Minister.”
Moment of truth
But Monday? That is the day that Gabriel Attal chose to submit his resignation to the President of the Republic. While the question of the possible Prime Minister of the left-wing coalition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, erected as a scarecrow, has encysted the entirety of this lightning campaign, the New Popular Front will face its first moment of truth. By declaring very quickly that the NFP will only govern to implement its entire program, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has set a prerequisite preventing any alliance and, perhaps, any nomination of a candidate from the left.
And even if its allies override the wishes of the Insoumis, the terms of designation will have to be decided. For LFI, the new tenant of Matignon must emerge from the first opposition group. The rest of the left-wing parties do not have such a clear opinion: some are arguing for a sort of primary, while others prefer that the head of government be designated according to criteria established by consensus by the different components of the alliance. All of this, in the light of a rebalanced balance of power between the parties. On Sunday, July 7, La France Insoumise officially lost its broad hegemony on the left (between 75 and 77 seats), caught up by the socialists (between 64 and 66 deputies), followed by the Greens (33-35 seats) and the communists (between 9 and 11 seats).
The components of the union of the left will have to engage in a balancing act very quickly. “What is important is to maintain unity within the New Popular Front, which must not be at the service of the stables,” worries a green oil, like many in the alliance. Finding a consensual personality in an alliance that, too often, has shown disunity. In this NFP, agreement on so little, if not to block the National Rally. Taking the deadlines one after the other. First, taking advantage of an improbable victory. Before facing tricky tomorrows.