The composition of the National Assembly after the legislative elections is not what had been envisaged. With a majority New Popular Front and in the absence of an absolute majority, will the government be left-wing or the result of a coalition? And who will succeed Gabriel Attal?
The essential
- The union of the left united behind the New Popular Front came out on top in the results of the legislative elections on July 7 and created a surprise.
- The National Assembly is however deprived of an absolute majority and the composition of a new government looks complex with three blocs in place: the New Popular Front with 183 deputies, the Ensemble coalition with 150 elected representatives and the far-right union with 143 seats.
- Several scenarios for a new government are on the table: a government of the union of the left led by a Prime Minister supported by the New Popular Front but still unknown or a coalition government made in the center by stretching the Macronist camp on its right and its left or a coalition government of the right between Ensemble and Les Républicains. But finding an absolute majority to avoid motions of censure looks difficult.
- The first clue about the direction of the new government will be the appointment of a Prime Minister, since Gabriel Attal is handing in his resignation to the Head of State on Monday, July 8. He may, however, remain at Matignon for several days or weeks, while his successor is appointed.
Live
09:20 – What are the hypotheses? That of a technical government
In the absence of an agreement or political alliance, the government could be reduced to a technical team of specialists to manage current affairs and the budget, ensure the proper functioning of the country and administrations according to current policies without bringing new reforms. In short, stick to the minimum service. A technical government composed of economists, diplomats or senior civil servants has never been appointed under the Fifth Republic in France, even if certain profiles of senior civil servants were appointed during the five-year terms of Emmanuel Macron. This would be a temporary solution allowing to hold out for a year before a new dissolution.
09:02 – What are the hypotheses? That of an alliance between Ensemble and LR
The number of elected representatives of Ensemble, Les Républicains, various centre and various right-wing parties climbs to almost 240 deputies, which is close to the 250 elected representatives of the presidential majority obtained by Emmanuel Macron’s camp in the Assembly in 2022. If the alliance, long discussed, between these political forces sees the light of day, it could form a coalition capable of being a majority in the hemicycle. But it would be, like a left-wing government, fragile in the face of a motion of censure voted by the New Popular Front and the National Rally unless it finds additional votes within its borders with these blocs.
A coalition of Ensemble and LR is the scenario called for by Gérald Darmanin who estimated on BFMTV that “the country is on the right” and that we “must govern on the right. And not have a coalition with La France insoumise and Nouveau Front populaire”. But the right is reluctant to get involved with the presidential camp.
08:39 – What are the hypotheses? That of an NFP government
Emmanuel Macron has “the duty to call on the new Popular Front to govern” according to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “We won! We will govern” assured Marine Tondelier. This is the first possible scenario: to see a left-wing government formed with the forces of the New Popular Front since the latter came out on top in the legislative elections. But even being first, the left-wing union does not have an absolute majority with its 182 seats and has few reserves of elected representatives if it does not form a coalition. It therefore remains fragile and is not certain to resist a motion of censure that would be tabled by the right or the extreme right. It would therefore have to convince part of the presidential camp to support it, but several left-wing figures have opposed a coalition with part of the former majority.
08:24 – Emmanuel Macron alone in choosing the Prime Minister
Even if the left-wing union were to agree on the name of a personality capable of becoming Prime Minister, it could only submit this name to Emmanuel Macron without the latter being forced to make the appointment. It is the President of the Republic who appoints the Prime Minister and his only constraint is that the head of government obtains the support of an absolute majority or almost of elected officials in order to be able to resist a motion of censure. He could therefore appoint someone other than the one designated by the New Popular Front, or even a personality from another political bloc in the event of a coalition.
08:17 – NFP calls for left-wing prime minister, but must find a name
After its victory in the legislative elections, the New Popular Front called on Emmanuel Macron to listen to the conclusions of the ballot boxes and to appoint a Prime Minister from the union of the left. However, the left itself has not yet agreed on the name of a possible head of government. Several politicians have called for discussions and, if necessary, a vote to appoint a consensual personality and in a “democratically” manner according to Sandrine Rousseau, an elected ecologist. Within La France insoumise, Manon Aubry continues to say that the designated Prime Minister has a chance of coming from this party, but imposes it with less force, also favoring consensus. A consensus to which the name of Jean-Luc Mélenchon does not respond.
08:08 – Gabriel Attal resigns the day after the legislative elections
Gabriel Attal announced on Sunday evening that he would hand in his resignation to Emmanuel Macron after the defeat of the Ensemble coalition in the legislative elections. He must hand it in on Monday, July 8. Be careful, this does not mean that the Prime Minister will leave his duties today: “I will assume my duties as long as my duty requires it,” he also declared on Sunday evening. Emmanuel Macron could then take his time and especially the time for discussions with the new forces in the Assembly to find a stronger majority and appoint a Prime Minister accordingly.
08:01 – The Assembly composed, place for a new government
Hello and welcome to this live broadcast devoted to the composition of a new government. The results of the legislative elections have revised the balance of power within the National Assembly, placing the union of the left at the head of a chamber without an absolute majority. In this context, who will be the next executive? Will it lean to the left or will it be the result of a coalition around the presidential camp? And who will be appointed Prime Minister.
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How soon will the new Prime Minister be appointed?
Let’s say it right away, not right away. During his speech announcing that he would resign, Gabriel Attal specified that he would “assume[ait] [s]his functions as long as duty requires.” In other words, Emmanuel Macron will not be obliged to accept it right away. As a reminder, he took three weeks before formalizing the departure of Jean Castex following the 2022 presidential election.
First of all, the future tenant of Matignon will not be known for a few days because Emmanuel Macron is constrained by his schedule. The head of state will not rush to appoint someone on Monday and he must then leave for Washington on Tuesday, for a NATO summit. He will not return to Paris until Thursday. We will therefore have to wait, at the very least, throughout the week. As soon as possible.
Because given the composition of the National Assembly, the President of the Republic will have the mission of finding a person with a program capable of gathering the support of at least 289 deputies. Otherwise, he would expose the government to a motion of censure which, if it were voted by more than half of the elected representatives, would lead to the overthrow of the ministerial team. So everything would have to start again.
The problem is that Emmanuel Macron will have to accommodate all sensitivities, from the left of course, from the center naturally, but also from the right. If the NFP came out on top, the head of state has already ruled out governing with the LFI deputies. So out goes these sixty elected officials, who could be compensated by the sixty LR who should once again join the Palais Bourbon. Finding a personality who suits the ecologists, socialists, communists, macronists and republicans will not be easy. Not to mention the programmatic points on which everyone will have to agree. The negotiations promise to be long and complex. Suffice to say that Gabriel Attal should make extra…
Who could be appointed Prime Minister?
A Prime Minister from the New Popular Front?
Who says unprecedented political situation, says total vagueness on the identity of the future Prime Minister. As soon as the results were announced, the left asked to govern, as it represents the leading force in the National Assembly. However, the New Popular Front does not agree on how to designate the person who could be proposed to Emmanuel Macron: is it up to the left-wing political party with the most deputies to impose a figure or for all the elected representatives of the NFP to vote among several proposals?
Clémentine Autain (LFI) asked the communists, socialists and environmentalists to meet on Monday “in a plenary assembly” to designate a person. With one prerequisite: neither François Hollande nor Jean-Luc Mélenchon. In any case, the left wants to settle in Matignon. Emmanuel Macron has “the duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern” according to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Marine Tondelier, Manuel Bompard, Mathilde Panot, Olivier Faure… There are almost as many suppositions as there are leaders.
A coalition prime minister?
However, nothing obliges Emmanuel Macron to give in to the calls of the left. The President of the Republic could quite easily choose to appoint another person, capable of leading a political rally from the left to the right, so that a majority emerges in the Assembly.
It remains to be seen who could embody this figure. The daily puts forward the hypothesis of Charles de Courson, the oldest deputy in the Assembly and a centrist figure discovered by the general public during his opposition to the pension reform. Point recalls for his part that the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, is often cited for Matignon. However, this last hypothesis has seriously taken a hit since it was the left that came out on top in the legislative elections. Even in the event of a coalition, the head of government would necessarily have to have a left-wing sensibility.