The National Rally came out on top in the first round of the legislative elections on June 30. Will it maintain this momentum this Sunday, July 7, when the results of the second round are announced? The party is aiming for an absolute majority.
Will the National Rally wave, seen during the European elections on June 9, confirmed by the first round of the 2024 legislative elections on Sunday June 30, finish sweeping across France this Sunday evening July 7, when the results of the second round of these legislative elections are announced?
The results are expected from 8pm and will be available on LInternaute.com. The RN is aiming for confirmation after a first round concluded with a first place and 29.25% of the votes according to the Ministry of the Interior (to which can be added the 3.90% obtained by the LR-RN candidates against whom the party had not placed any candidate), But if some of its leaders, like Marine Le Pen, in Pas-de-Calais, were elected in the first round, it is still necessary for the majority of RN candidates to go through a second round this Sunday, July 7.
To do this, the RN will have to resist the surge of the “Republican Front” and the withdrawals announced against it. Nevertheless, the RN has already pulled off a few coups in the first round, for example in the 1st constituency of the Somme, where the very media-friendly François Ruffin, labeled New Popular Front during these early legislative elections, has been a member of parliament since 2017. His candidate, Nathalie Ribeiro-Billet, emerged the big winner in the first round on June 30, winning 40.6% of the vote. In a stronghold anchored on the left, the far-right candidate beat Ruffin (33.92%), who has definitively disassociated himself from La France Insoumise in recent days, and can hope to sit in the National Assembly in a few days. However, in order to block the RN, Albane Branlant, stamped Ensemble and credited with more than 22% of the votes last Sunday, withdrew so as not to form a three-way race. The transfer of votes could greatly harm Ribeiro-Billet.
Another example, the 6th constituency of Hérault is giving rise to an internal struggle between Emmanuelle Ménard, the wife of Robert Ménard, the mayor of Béziers since 2014, and Julien Gabarron, the candidate invested by the National Rally. The latter struck hard by collecting 41% of the votes during the first round of the legislative elections on June 30 when Emmanuelle Ménard, labeled Miscellaneous Right, had to be content with 27.3% of the votes. The latter, a member of parliament since 2017, therefore finds herself in very great danger, especially since this duel will be arbitrated by the New Popular Front. Magalie Crozier, credited with 21% last Sunday, had no interest in withdrawing in the face of two opponents placed very far to the right. All the more so since the candidate of La France Insoumise could benefit from the transfer of votes from Sarah Fatima Daudé-Allaoui, the Ensemble representative eliminated in the first round with a score close to 10%.
Behind these emblematic special cases, will the results of the 2nd round this Sunday evening allow the far-right party to obtain a majority, even a relative one? If the National Rally will certainly beat its record of deputies (89 obtained in 2022) in the National Assembly, the absolute majority placed at 289 seats will be very difficult to achieve. The latest estimates made by the various polling institutes projected between 200 and 230 seats for the party born from the FN founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen.
What result for the RN in the second round of the legislative elections?
The party chaired since 2021 by Jordan Bardella emerged as the big winner of the first round of early legislative elections on June 30. What will happen this Sunday evening after the second round? The theory of a victory without an absolute majority appears to be the most plausible, with the RN forming the first group of deputies in the National Assembly, reinforced by its Ciottist allies. The 289 seats needed to obtain a majority, however, seem out of reach for the RN, in particular due to the numerous withdrawals of other parties to block it, which have divided the number of announced three-way races by three (there will be 89 three-way races in the second round).
How many deputies for the RN after the legislative elections?
We will have to wait until late Sunday evening to know the exact number of National Rally deputies who will sit in the National Assembly. The latest opinion polls published at the end of the campaign reported a downward trend for the RN. While some polling institutes suggested at the beginning of the week the possibility of an absolute majority for Jordan Bardella’s party, the trend would rather be towards obtaining around 200 seats. The numbers of seats by party and not by political union (NFP, RN, Ens!) are given below. The absolute majority is 289 deputies.
If it obtains 200 to 230 seats at the end of these early legislative elections, the RN will undoubtedly become the first group in the National Assembly. But without an absolute majority, Jordan Bardella, designated within the far-right party as the candidate for the post of Prime Minister, will not be in a position to become the future head of government. Above all, the National Rally will have great difficulty in forming alliances to obtain a relative majority in the hemicycle, which would obviously greatly reduce its role in the Assembly.