The results of the first round of the 2024 legislative elections give rise to a record number of three-way races. We explain what they are and what they imply.
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Of the 306 triangular races announced following the results of the first round, there will ultimately be “only” 89 triangular races left this Sunday, July 7, the day of the second round of the legislative elections. The numerous withdrawals made official in the wake of the first round of the legislative elections have logically reduced the number of triangular races organized during this second round of these 2024 legislative elections.
By “triangular”, we therefore mean a second round that brings together three candidates, instead of two most often. The rules of the French legislative elections provide for cases where three candidates can qualify for the second round, under certain conditions. These are called triangulars. Quadrangulars, although even rarer, are also possible. How can this be explained? To qualify for the second round, a candidate must collect more than 50% of the votes cast as well as a number of votes at least equal to 25% of registered voters, the latter is directly elected in his constituency. But if no candidate meets these two criteria, a second round is organized. All candidates who have collected at least 12.5% of the votes of registered voters in their constituency are then qualified. In the event of a high turnout, as was the case on Sunday, June 30 during the first round, three or four candidates may find themselves in this situation.
Of the 577 constituencies in France, 76 MPs were elected in the first round. There are therefore 501 MP seats left to be filled this Sunday, July 7. Among these 501 elections that will be held on Sunday, 89 “triangular” elections will be organized according to the lists of candidates sent to the Ministry of the Interior. That is still more than 17%.
These triangular races mostly include constituencies where the RN only came in third place in the first round. The opponents therefore consider that it has little chance of winning and have maintained their candidacies. The Ensemble, pour la majeur présidentielle party has also maintained some candidates who came in third place, judging that remaining in these specific constituencies would not favor a possible election of the RN. A bet that will be closely scrutinized and no doubt commented on Sunday evening when the results are announced…
Triangular races in highly contested constituencies and with political figures in the running
Among the constituencies with three-way races on Sunday to watch in particular, we will note the 1st constituency of the Alpes Maritimes. Eric Ciotti, at the origin of the LR-RN alliance criticized in his own camp, came out on top in the first round but will face Olivier Salerno for LFI-Nouveau Front Populaire and Graig Monetti for Horizons-Ensemble. His re-election seems assured, however.
This is not at all the case for a former President of the Republic, François Hollande. It is another three-way race that will be closely watched on Sunday, the one in the 1st constituency of Corrèze. François Hollande will face Maïté Pouget for the RN and Francis Dubois for LR. Having come out on top in the first round, the former First Secretary of the PS does not have any reserves of votes on the left and could be overtaken in the second round. The only unknown is what will the right-wing voters choose and will they divide their votes between the RN and LR?
In the 1st constituency of Isère, former minister Olivier Véran (Ensemble) is opposed to Hugo Prévost for LFI-Nouveau Front Populaire and Alexandre Lacroix for LR-RN. He too is in a difficult position. We will also note the presence of a three-way race in Lot (1st constituency) for outgoing LR MP Aurélien Pradié opposed to Elsa Bougeard for the New Popular Front and Slavka Mihailova for the RN.