the results of the final surveys before the vote

The 2024 legislative election campaign is over and the new members of the National Assembly will be elected this Sunday, July 7, 2024. The major issue of the result of the second round of the legislative elections is to know if the National Rally will be the leading force in the chamber and if it will have an absolute majority at the end of the vote, in which case it will be able to govern the country without difficulty. The seat projections made by the various polling institutes up until the last day of the campaign showed the far-right bloc likely to obtain the most elected representatives, but the absolute majority of 289 members of parliament seemed to be slipping away in the very last hours before the truce.

The National Rally had a better chance of obtaining an absolute majority before the withdrawals and the formation of a Republican front by the candidates of the presidential majority and the left, according to the evolution of the polls between June 30, the evening of the first round, and July 3, after the officialization of the candidacies of the second round. The very latest polls credited the extreme right with 170 to 230 deputies, the left with 145 to 190 elected representatives, the presidential majority with 115 to 150 deputies and the right of the Republicans with 25 to 50 seats.

A work carried out by the media Le Grand Continent is more precise, even if the reliability of such an estimate is necessarily less strong than a poll on voting intentions. The methodology used is different, constructed from the poll matrices of Cluster 17 and the probable vote reports in each constituency, it gave the following results before the official end of the campaign, for the 2nd round of the legislative elections:

It should be borne in mind that all projections concerning the outcome of legislative elections made reflect trends at a given time, but can only be considered reliable results.