At midnight this Friday evening, the campaign for the legislative elections will officially end. The second round of voting will take place on Sunday, July 7. Will the far right obtain an absolute majority for the first time in France? Will its opponents’ withdrawal strategy block its path? Will the presidential camp save the day? Many questions arise for this second round. Questions also arise for the post-legislative period. Absolute majority, minority government, “technical” government… Several hypotheses exist.
Which National Assembly?
Several scenarios are possible after the second round. First, an absolute majority (at least 289 deputies) for the National Rally. Another option is a relative majority. If this is comfortable (around 270 seats), “this could allow Jordan Bardella to seek support from LR and access Matignon without fear that his government will be overthrown by a motion of censure in the Assembly”, explains constitutionalist Anne-Charlène Bezzina, from the University of Rouen, to AFP.
If the majority is limited (around 250 seats), a scenario recently experienced with Elisabeth Borne, the RN will have difficulty getting its laws passed. If the majority is weak (around 220 seats) then the “legitimacy (of the RN) will be almost competitive with the oppositions who will be touching the RN”, estimates Anne-Charlène Bezzina.
“Two things are certain. The National Assembly, as it will be drawn up on July 7, cannot under any circumstances be dissolved before June 9, 2025, even if we have a new presidential election,” says the constitutionalist. “Moreover, the country cannot find itself without a government in the name of the principle of the continuity of the State,” she recalls.
Who at Matignon and when?
Article 8 of the Constitution does not impose anything on the President of the Republic. He is the master of the clocks, particularly in terms of the deadline for appointing the head of government. In the event of an absolute majority, Jordan Bardella could therefore agree to be Prime Minister only after the crucial deadline of the Olympic Games (July 26-August 11). In 2022, almost a month had passed between the resignation of Jean Castex and the arrival of Elisabeth Borne at Matignon.
According to Politico, Emmanuel Macron is determined not to rush things after the second round, whether or not the RN has an absolute majority. “He will ask for a time out, a time to think before appointing a new Prime Minister,” a visitor to the Elysée Palace told Playbook. The President of the Republic is therefore planning to ask Gabriel Attal to stay in office for a few days – even if the political situation requires him to appoint Jordan Bardella to Matignon – in order to “calm the country,” according to the same source.
In the event that the National Rally is not very close to 289 deputies, Jordan Bardella indicated that he would not go to Matignon, a first under the Fifth Republic. On France Inter, Tuesday, Marine Le Pen mentioned a threshold of 270 deputies to accept Matignon. “From the moment we have, for example, 270 deputies, we need 19 more” to have the absolute majority of 289 deputies. “We will go to see the others and we will tell them: ‘Are you ready to participate with us in a new majority for a new policy, yes or no? Are you ready to vote for confidence? Are you ready to vote for the budget?'”, indicated the outgoing RN deputy, re-elected in the first round on Sunday in Pas-de-Calais.
However, there is no indication that Jordan Bardella of the RN will not change his mind in order not to “displease his electorate”. He could then form a government, “wait until it eventually falls under a motion of censure and thus show voters that he is being prevented despite his will”, predicts Anne-Charlène Bezzina. According to Politico, the strategists of the majority agree in thinking that Emmanuel Macron would be inclined to charge Jordan Bardella with forming a government, even in the event of a relative majority for the RN.
What will happen if Jordan Bardella refuses Matignon?
In the event of the RN refusing to govern, the hypothesis of a “grand coalition” or a “national unity government” bringing together the presidential camp, the centre-right, Les Républicains and part of the New Popular Front has been raised in recent days. But this seems complicated. It is difficult, in fact, to imagine such politically different personalities in the same government. “This heterogeneous coalition, which would emerge without LFI, will be very poorly equipped to resist a motion of censure,” believes Anne-Charlène Bezzina.
The other hypothesis raised is the formation of a “technical government” to last until the next legislative elections, which the various political forces would undertake not to overthrow. This would be composed of experts (economists, senior civil servants, etc.) themselves supervised by a consensual personality at Matignon. The objective would be to reassure investors, financial markets and France’s partners. Its scope of action would be limited to the strict minimum, such as the payment of civil servants.
What will be the political groups in the Assembly?
Several political families run the risk of not reaching the minimum threshold of deputies, set at 15, to form a group in the new hemicycle and benefit from the advantages that go with it. Three groups from the previous legislature are not guaranteed to cross this threshold, Politico suggests: the Liot group led by its former president Bertrand Pancher, himself not guaranteed to be re-elected, the Horizons group, the movement founded by Edouard Philippe, as well as the GDR group, which brought together the communists and overseas deputies.
On the left, a large group composed of elected ecologists, elected members of Génération.s and some Insoumis who have broken with the leadership of the movement, or even communists, could see the light of day during the next legislature. The deputies elected on Sunday in the first round have already entered the Palais Bourbon. Those who will be elected on Sunday evening will enter on Monday, July 8. They will have until Thursday, July 11, 6 p.m., to form the different political groups of this new legislature.