Even before the result of the second round of the legislative elections, energy experts are asking themselves questions. What if, following the vote, France were to fall back into its old ways and not take any clear direction in terms of energy policy? Of course, it is still premature to draw such conclusions. However, the likely hypothesis of an unobtainable majority in the Assembly may well lead to a lack of decision.
“The major players in the sector are worried,” confirms a source. “Let’s put ourselves in their shoes. To hire and train staff, invest in factories and machines, there must be a relative certainty that all this will be of some use, and that the expenses incurred will not become impossible to amortize.” In other words, companies in the sector need clarity. However, election programs, on both the left and the right, raise more questions than they provide answers. Many observers wonder how the RN could implement its program, whether it is the tight schedule for the delivery of future power plants or the establishment of a French price for electricity. On the New Popular Front side, the fact of having swept the nuclear issue under the carpet during the vote also creates uncertainty.
An expert tries to be positive: “if the New Popular Front did not want to go far on energy issues, that means that it has people in its ranks who are in favour of nuclear power”. However, the worst for the sector would be a “stop and go” scenario. For example, on the EPRs, the government would decide to build six, but beyond that, it would remain unclear. The renewable energy lobby would take advantage of this to hammer home its message: it is too expensive and takes too long to build…
Hope for “technical” subjects
The hesitations and errors of energy policy have already cost the country dearly, concluded the parliamentary inquiry into the loss of energy independence conducted in 2023. Two years ago, France was at risk of a blackout due to a lack of controllable electricity production capacity. Today, it still suffers from high electricity prices. These are now 2 to 3 times higher than in the United States or Asia, contributing to the disconnection of Europe and France.
Despite the recent shift in nuclear power, the balance between production and consumption will remain fragile until new reactors are commissioned. “Let’s be realistic, compromises will have to be made. If no one obtains a strong majority, we will have neither the nuclear proliferation advocated by the National Rally, nor the halt desired by some of its adversaries. At least, if we add together what remains of Renaissance, LR and the National Rally, there is clearly a majority for not changing the law on the merger of the ASN and the IRSN,” predicts a specialist.
“I think we are going to have a Parliament incapable of legislating on political and sovereign issues. However, in this context, technical subjects could find a little space. My hope is that we can, with several groups of very different sensibilities, advance some current issues and in particular that of the revival of nuclear power”, says a connoisseur of the Assembly. If we do not succeed, it would be a catastrophe for the future”.