(Finance) – The M&A market confirms a strong recovery at the start of 2024. In fact, in the first six months of 2024, operations for approximately 46.5 million were recorded
billion euros (+147% compared to 19 billion in the first half of 2023), also exceeding the values recorded in the whole of 2023 (equal to approximately 38 billion euros). A result also determined by the closing of some large deals above one billion euros.
They also recover the volumes: in the first six months, approximately 680 deals (in line with the first record semester of last year). After a cautious first quarter, the second quarter therefore brings the half-yearly volumes to record levels of activity. On an annual basis, the number of closed deals now stands at around 1200-1300 operations.
By Max Fiani, Partner KPMG and curator of the report: “We are witnessing a Very favorable first semester for Italian M&Awith one of the best starts in the last 10 years, especially thanks to the contribution of the sectors regulated by telecommunications (with reference to the extraordinary contribution of the operation carried out by KKR on TIM) to energy. Also in terms of volumes, unlike the global market which is recording a modest decrease, the number of deals that we are registering in Italy is at the record levels of recent years”.
In relation to the direction of the operations, in terms of value, in the first half of the year there was a prevalence of investments by foreign operators on Italian assets which represented over 60% of the total value. In terms of number, however, over 50% of the operations were represented by domestic M&A (Italy on Italy), confirming the trend observed in the first quarter of the year.
At sector levelthe three main macro sectors to which approximately 73% of the values recorded in the first half of 2024 can be attributed are: i) TMT with 15.4 billion euros; ii) Energy & Utilities with 13.4 billion euros; iii) Industrial Markets with 5 billion euros.
Outlook 2024
The expected pipeline for 2024 on the Italian market in terms of operations announced, but not yet finalized, allows us to estimate a 2024 M&A market that could exceed 70 billion euros in terms of value and 1,200 operations on an annual basis. The first rate cut by the ECB, the European Commission that forecasts GDP growth for 2024 (1.0% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area) and the expected drop in IPCA inflation (from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, then reaching 2.2% in 2025), leads us to be positive and predict a growing M&A market.
Among the deals announced and not yet concluded, we recall, in the Energy sector, the start of an exclusive negotiation period for the purchase of 100% of the capital of 2i Rete Gas by Italgas, the reorganization of the electricity networks in Lombardy, with the acquisition by A2A of the electricity network branch managed by e-distribuzione (ENI Group) in some areas of Lombardy in the provinces of Milan and Brescia.
In the Consumer Markets sector Newlat Group has communicated to the financial community its intention to acquire (by the end of July) the entire share capital of Princes Limited, a historic food group based in the United Kingdom owned by the Mitsubishi Corporation Group for a value of approximately 700 million pounds. The merger between Forno d’Asolo and Sammontana is still “blocked” by the Antitrust. In Industrial sectorPrysmian is expected to close in July on the acquisition of the listed US company Encore Wire, a manufacturer of copper and aluminium electrical cables for the energy sector. Leonardo is reportedly preparing an offer to create a Made in Italy hub for military vehicles, evaluating the acquisition of the Iveco Defence Vehicles asset of Iveco Group NV. Leonardo has signed a binding agreement for the sale of the “Underwater Armaments & Systems” business line to Fincantieri for approximately 415 million euros.
In the financial sectorthe finalization of the transfer of Banco BPM’s electronic money business unit for approximately 600 million euros to the PayHolding vehicle is awaited, which will be controlled 43% by Fsi and 29% each by Banco Bpm and Iccrea. In addition to the greater contestability of MPS, eyes are focused on the expected disposal, by the MEF, of the shares directly held in Poste
Italians for a value that could amount to approximately 4.4 billion.
Value, however, that can be independent of the timing of the operation, which must be placed within the three-year horizon 2024-2026.
Furthermore, in the transport sector The European Commission is ready to give the green light to the operation that will allow Lufthansa to purchase a 41% stake in ITA Airways from the MEF. This will happen through the subscription of a reserved capital increase worth 325 million euros. Lufthansa will then have an option to increase its stake to 100% of ITA Airways.
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