The hypothesis of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s nomination as Prime Minister seems to be definitively buried after the first round of the 2024 legislative elections. Here’s why.
For the New Popular Front, the hope of winning the 2024 legislative elections and obtaining a majority in the National Assembly is fading the day after the first round. And with it, the ambition of imposing a left-wing government on Emmanuel Macron. From then on, the “Mélenchon Prime Minister” hypothesis, which caused so much ink to flow during the campaign, is losing even more credibility. Jean-Luc Mélenchon himself had moderated his ambitions with regard to Matignon, in the face of ardent opposition from several of his partners.
“I am not a candidate for anything,” the leader of LFI would insist on France 2 on Monday, June 24. The founder of La France insoumise, who had said at the beginning of the campaign that he was “capable” of exercising the function of Prime Minister in the event of a victory of the New Popular Front in the legislative elections, had to clarify his remarks, faced with the turmoil caused by his ambiguity even in the allied ranks. “I could very well be a minister among others or not be a minister at all,” he affirmed.
“I do not exclude myself but I do not impose myself”, the founder of La France Insoumise has constantly repeated during the campaign. A position sufficiently vague to allow his adversaries to attribute hidden ambitions to him. But also to embarrass his own allies, forced to note that Jean-Luc Mélenchon had become a repulsive figure for many voters, including on the left.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon now seems to be changing his strategy and wanting to highlight other figures in his party. Thus, challenged by Jordan Bardella who invited him to a debate this Monday morning, the founder of LFI redirected him to Manuel Bompard, Mathilde Panot, or Clémence Guetté, all three re-elected as deputies in the first round of the legislative elections.
“It can’t be Jean-Luc Mélenchon”
“We don’t care about Jean-Luc Mélenchon, what matters is the daily lives of the French,” the leader of the environmentalists, Marine Tondelier, was still annoyed this Monday morning on France Inter. Asked about the role of the rebel in the New Popular Front, Marine Tondelier brushed the subject aside, recalling that her “priority” was to “beat” the extreme right in the second round of the legislative elections.
Before her, several bigwigs of the left had opposed the hypothesis of “Mélenchon Prime Minister” with an increasingly categorical “no” during the campaign. “It can’t be Jean-Luc Mélenchon”, hammered the socialist Olivier Faure on Wednesday June 24 on TF1. “Jean-Luc Mélenchon is not the personality who will create a consensus among us for a peaceful Parliament”, confirmed the communist Fabien Roussel the next day on Franceinfo. Jean-Luc Mélenchon “is not the leader of the New Popular Front and he will not be Prime Minister”, decided the ecologist Marine Tondelier to the AFP a few days earlier. “In the end, it will not be Jean-Luc Mélenchon”, promised Raphaël Glucksmann on June 14 on France Inter.
Even the rebellious François Ruffin had quickly made the observation, in the columns of the Courrier Picard: “In all honesty, during the first door-to-door surveys, his name came up, and with concern.” And the deputy from the Somme concluded: “It seems obvious that he will not be Prime Minister.”
How will the Prime Minister be chosen?
If the prospect of an entirely left-wing government recedes, it is quite possible that Emmanuel Macron will try to form a coalition government the day after the legislative elections. On condition that the RN does not obtain an absolute majority: Jordan Bardella has already indicated that he does not wish to be Prime Minister within the framework of a relative majority. On the other hand, the Macronist camp is increasingly raising the hypothesis of a coalition of republican forces, which could include in their minds a part of the left.
However, current projections give the New Popular Front the second largest group of deputies in the National Assembly after the 2024 legislative elections. Consequently, if he wants to avoid governing with the RN at all costs, Emmanuel Macron will probably have to reach out to the left and appoint a Prime Minister from its ranks.
But it is a safe bet that the President of the Republic will choose a more moderate left-wing figure than Jean-Luc Mélenchon: the Macronist camp did not hold back its verve against La France Insoumise, described as “extreme left” throughout the campaign. The appointment of a socialist, communist or environmentalist Prime Minister is however likely to be very badly received by the rebels, who consider themselves in a position of strength within the New Popular Front. Not enough to dissuade Emmanuel Macron, who on the contrary has every interest in breaking up the left-wing bloc again.