What are the consequences of global warming?

Depending on the different climate models, the effects of warming will be very diverse and geographically unequal. But the global warming of the planet by the increase in the greenhouse effect should modify the major climatic mechanisms such as average temperature levels, oceanic and atmospheric circulation, water cycleetc

The consequences of global warming for the planet

Several possible consequences of these climatic changes are the subject of scientific consensus. Some have already been observed.

The melting ice cream and permafrost (or permafrost) should open up access to new arable land, new mining and energy resources, and new shipping lanes. In 2016, the arctic pack ice recorded record melts.

This melting of the ice will also cause thesea ​​level rise, which will flood areas at very low elevations and change the coastal geography. Thus, over the past 50 years, the level of the oceans has risen by some 10 centimeters. And the Nasa estimates that in 100 to 200 years it will rise another at least one meter. The CNRS, for its part, predicts that between 10 and 20,000 islands could be wiped off the map.

The amplification of the phenomena of evaporation and precipitation and the upheaval of the jet streams – these enormous high-altitude currents – are all factors that are already increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts – like the one experienced by California in 2016 – and floods.

The displacement of ranges organisms and diseases, and therefore large agricultural areaswould result in the disappearance ofspecies and D’ecosystems and landscape transformation. So the Great Barrier Reeftreasure of the biodiversity listed as a World Heritage Site, experienced in 2016 and 2017, two consecutive years of record bleaching (1,500 km out of 2,300 affected in 2017). And according to an American study, one in six animal species could become extinct. A threat that would vary according to the regions of the world. Thus 23% of species are threatened in South America against 14% in Australia and New Zealand.

Finally, our planet could see an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (stormstorrential rains, etc.).

Global warming: the consequences for society

All of these environmental changes are likely to have a profound impact on human societies.

Agricultural and fishing production will be affected as well as the water resources. Consequences, according to the Food Bank and the UN: more than 100 million people could fall into extreme poverty and nearly 600 million could suffer from malnutrition by 2080.

Territorial security and infrastructure should also be affected. The latter could indeed badly withstand the floods and other disasters (fires, etc.) announced.

The health consequences of climate change could also be significant. A warming of 2 to 3°C would thus be enough to increase by 5% the number of inhabitants exposed to malaria. And by 2080, theWHO estimates that an additional two billion people could be at risk of HIV transmission. dengue fever. Diarrheal diseases – resulting from contamination water – they could grow by 10% in the next 15 years.

The consequences of these upheavals should therefore result in the multiplication of the number of climate refugees and by increasing geopolitical instability. Already the inhabitants of theatoll from Bikini, in the Pacific, have applied for asylum in the United States. And theInternally Displacement Monitoring Center counted some 83.5 million climate refugees between 2011 and 2014, while the UN predicts that they will be 250 million by 2050.

Finally, as early as 2007, the economist Nicholas Stern assessed the economic cost induced by a Warming of the planet between 1% and 10% of the GDP worldwide in 2100, i.e. 5,500 billion euros.