Many lessons can be learned from the first round of the legislative elections on Sunday, June 30, which were organized in record time and nevertheless marked by a high turnout. Here are a few, from the progress of the National Rally (RN) to the level of education of the New Popular Front voters.
Participation, the big winner among young people
Increase in participation at 12 noon, 59.39% at 5 p.m. with a near-record projection for the end of the day: before the arrival of the final results during the night, participation was the star of this first round of legislative elections. It even constituted an immense stake, insofar as each camp hoped to siphon off a few votes from a reservoir that was difficult to poll. Result: 66.71% participation, unheard of since the dissolution of 1997, all after a quick campaign, a remobilization after European elections that were poorly followed on a date (June 30) favorable to the first departures on vacation.
” The abstentionists are not only among the young, the remobilization that we have observed cuts across all social groups “, tries to explain Jessica Sainty, lecturer in political science at the University of Avignon and sociologist of electoral behavior. This has manifested itself in almost the entire breadth of the political spectrum due to a context with multiple mobilizing factors. ” There was the very unusual side of these elections.continues Jessica Sainty. Since 2002, the legislative elections have followed the presidential elections and had become routine elections, for ratifying the new president, almost the least interesting in French political life. “.
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The contrast in participation could therefore be all the stronger sinceEmmanuel Macron was not a choice of conviction for many voters, who would not have wanted to go to the polling stations again to give a majority to a president who did not convince them (47.51% participation in 2022 in the first round). We have also seen two major social movements recently, recalls the lecturer. Pensions last year and farmers this year. With significant support from the population, which can push people who are far from the polls to return to them. Probably, also, part of the left-wing electorate was worried about seeing the RN govern. And in the same way, for far-right readers, a hope of governance. »
RN increasing among all ages and all socio-professional categories
Is the electoral progress of the National Rally (RN) transversal in France? Yes “, answers, laconic, Mathieu Doiret, director of studies at the Ipsos polling institute, from which the results and estimates come. If the FN/RN vote is historically anchored among men aged 30 to 50, the first round of Sunday’s legislative elections showed a clear progression among age categories that were still somewhat resistant to it.
Among the youngest, ” It’s a basic trendexplains Mathieu Doiret. It is simply indicative of the lack of homogeneity of young people. There is a big difference in the level of diploma. Especially knowing that for them, it is linked to where they are in their studies, whether they are finished or not, since the RN is lower among students “. An RN vote among young people, but not just any young people. Because if the extreme right embodied by Jordan Bardella has gained 15 points among very young voters since 2022, it must still be kept in mind that among 18-24 year olds. The New Popular Front won almost half of the votes, nationally.
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Compared to 2022, the Le Pen party has notably exploded its scores among the oldest voters. Plus 22 percentage points among 60-69 year-olds and 17 among those over 70. A movement that has been progressive ” among older people and retireesnotes Mathieu Doiret. Even though they are the ones who still vote the most for Ensemble. A progression that has taken away all space from the traditional right. “The Republicans achieved scores of 11% and 14% in the same age categories.
Among retirees, the National Rally has made significant progress. But when looking at the socio-professional categories, it is not the most spectacular increases that are to be noted when it comes to analyzing the scores of the ex-FN. But rather that of executives and intermediate professions. Electorates that have generally resisted the Le Penist sirens until now. Behind these CSPs are hidden, in particular ” teachers, nurses, social workers… where some have moved from one side to the other without transitionexplains Mathieu Doiret. Specifically for security or immigration issues encountered in their work. We know this because it was the unions who brought it to our attention. “.
The educated and wealthy electorate still leaning towards the left
” What’s fascinating on the left is how affluent and educated the NFP electorate is. “, the pollster points out. The observation is striking, as the vote moves towards the left, the level of education increases. A finding which joins the analysis concerning the vote of the youngest, among whom only certain categories ventured with a vote for the extreme right.
Regarding the level of wealth, the results are essentially the same and confirm that the most affluent and most educated voters chose the NFP. A victory? Yes and no, because it is not necessarily new.recalls Mathieu Doiret. After 2017, these people had voted a lot for the Macronist center and, since the European elections, they are returning to the left. It is a bit like what François Hollande’s electorate was like in 2012. “Not really proletarian, then.” What is less marked than before is the private/public difference, it is now less important than before “, he concludes.
Another inviolable bastide on the left are the big cities and working-class neighborhoods, like the west of Paris and its suburbs. If the RN has made progress there, the left has not retreated: ” In reality, the far-right vote in the big cities is the right-wing vote of the past, which went towards Les Républicains. “, analyzes Mathieu Doiret
Together and the Republicans without conviction?
” To vote RN, you have to adhere to the ideas and not just position yourself in defiance of political life “, insists Jessica Sainty. Contrary to what this little music of ” We never tried with them “, voters wishing to give a majority to Jordan Bardella are convinced, ideologically, that the party for which they vote corresponds to their convictions.
At the question “ Do you intend to vote for this candidate primarily to make him and his coalition win, or primarily to block other candidates and their coalitions? ? », 74% of RN voters chose the first option. A reality far from a vote of spite, for want of having tried the rest. Unlike the votes directed towards Les Républicains and Ensemble.
” We will find in the vote of people who vote RN an authoritarian and racist vision of societyexplains Jessica Sainty. The whole debate about dual nationals and their supposed disloyalty to France, there, we are at the heart of what the RN is. Voting for that is a vote of adhesionnot. “
In a second round coming up on Sunday, July 7, with more than 300 potential triangular races, the stakes of conviction and the dam will be major. It remains to be seen which current will ” dam workers ” will they decide to stop, if they decide to.