The National Rally came well ahead this Sunday in the first round of historic legislative elections which could open the doors of power to the far right for the first time since the Second World War. With 34-34.2% of the vote, the party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen and its allies are ahead of the New Popular Front bringing together the left, which obtains 28.1-29.1%, far ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s camp. at 20.3-21.5%, during this vote marked by a sharp increase in participation, according to estimates published at 8 p.m. by the Ipsos and Ifop institutes. The Republicans who have not formed an alliance with the RN stand at 10%.
The first projections of seats for the future National Assembly, to be taken with great caution, envisage a strong relative majority for the RN and its allies, or even an absolute majority at the end of the second round next Sunday. “We need an absolute majority,” launched Marine Le Pen, also announcing her own election as a deputy in the first round in her stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont. According to the three-time presidential candidate, “the Macronist bloc” is “practically erased” after this first Sunday of voting.
After the surprise dissolution of the National Assembly, announced by the Head of State on the evening of the rout of his candidates in the European elections of June 9, the political landscape should be profoundly changed. But in reality, there are 577 ballots to choose as many deputies, and the reconfiguration will depend on the dynamics between now and the second round, next Sunday, and on possible withdrawals and voting instructions in each constituency. Especially since the second round should be marked by a record number of potential three-way races. According to Ipsos, there could be between 65 and 85 elected representatives in the first round, and potentially more than 300 three-way races (before withdrawals), a completely unprecedented situation that reinforces the vagueness of the projections.
“Large gathering”
“Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican gathering for the second round,” said Emmanuel Macron in a written statement sent to the media at 8 p.m. He welcomed the “high turnout” which “testifies to the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation.” “Their democratic choice obliges us,” he added, after bringing together the leaders of the parties with which he has governed since 2017. Among them, MoDem leader François Bayrou said he regretted a “vote of sanction” which represents a “threat.”
While the “republican front” against the far right has continued to crack over the years, the President of the Republic has not fully clarified the attitude to follow in the event of duels between the RN and the NFP or three-way races. Until now, leading figures in his camp seemed to be leaning towards “neither RN nor La France Insoumise”, castigated by the left and criticized even within his own camp. The attitude of the Macronist camp towards the LFI candidates remains uncertain. Early this evening, the minister responsible for gender equality, Aurore Bergé, for example, rejected any automatic withdrawal in the second round of the legislative elections.
On the left, several leaders have again called for their troops to withdraw if another candidate is better placed to block the RN. After maintaining some vagueness, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of La France insoumise, announced that his candidates would withdraw if they finished third and the RN was in the lead. “It would be incomprehensible if some people continued not to differentiate between the left and the far right,” reacted the head of the Ecologists Marine Tondelier, calling for the “construction of a new republican front.” Raphaël Glucksmann’s party Place publique, for its part, asked all parties that came in third to withdraw in the face of the RN in the event of a three-way race in the second round of the legislative elections.
The RN sees the unprecedented prospect of obtaining a relative or absolute majority on July 7, with the best score in its history in the first round of a vote, improving on the already record score of the European elections. Embodied by the smooth face of its young president Jordan Bardella, 28 years old, the Le Penist party hopes to transform the test in a week. If Jordan Bardella enters Matignon, it would be the first time since the Second World War that a government from the extreme right would lead France. The president of the RN has however warned that he would only accept the post of Prime Minister if his party holds an absolute majority.
It would also be an unprecedented cohabitation between Emmanuel Macron, pro-European president, and a government much more hostile to the European Union, which could spark sparks regarding the prerogatives of the two heads of the executive, particularly in matters of diplomacy and defense. Jordan Bardella declared on Sunday evening that he “intends to be a Prime Minister of cohabitation, respectful of the Constitution” but “intransigent”.
Assembly blocked?
Another possible scenario is that of a blocked Assembly, with no possible alliance between very polarized camps, at the risk of plunging France into the unknown. Despite differences that could seem irreconcilable, the left managed to unite in the wake of the dissolution, despite disagreements between LFI and its partners which parasitized its campaign, in particular over the contested leadership of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. During this time, nothing seemed to slow down the dynamics of the RN in the campaign on purchasing power and against immigration: neither the vagueness on the repeal of Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform nor the controversies over dual nationals , or the sulphurous remarks of certain far-right candidates.
At the end of this day which saw a large influx into the polling stations, participation should be at least 65% of those registered, according to polling institutes. That is to say well beyond the 47.51% of 2022, but below the 67.9% of the last legislative elections organized after a dissolution, in 1997. Several figures of national politics have launched into the battle, like the former President François Hollande in Corrèze (in the lead in the first round with 37.7%) or one of the tenors of the right Laurent Wauquiez (in the lead in his constituency of Haute-Loire). His party, Les Républicains, also announced that it would not give voting instructions before the second round. Several ministers are also candidates, and some of them were gathered this Sunday at Matignon, where Gabriel Attal is due to speak in the evening.
“Finding serenity”
Overseas, the outgoing deputies of the centrist Liot group or invested by the NFP are in the lead in Guadeloupe and Guyana. In Polynesia, the autonomist candidate Moerani Frébault is elected in the first round. First elected of the 577 new deputies, he will also be the first Marquesan to sit in the National Assembly. In the polling stations, many voters testified during the day of their excitement for these early elections.
“I would like to find some peace because since the European elections, everything has taken on a worrying scale. But we must continue to fight for what we believe in,” Roxane Lebrun, 40, told AFP in Bordeaux. In Saint-Etienne, Christophe, a 22-year-old police officer, was worried about a vote that could “divide the population even more.” In Rennes and Lyon, many city-centre shops have protected their windows for fear of disturbances after the results were announced.