France will vote today and a week from now on Sunday in parliamentary elections, the effects of which will be reflected in the whole of Europe.
Parliamentary elections are exceptionally held after the president Emmanuel Macron dissolved the parliament immediately on the eve of the European elections on June 9 after suffering a crushing defeat. He became the overwhelming winner of the election Marine Le Pen far-right party National Coalition.
Latest forecasts according to the far-right, the entry into power is closer than ever, as the party is expected to receive 36 percent support in the first round.
Below are four ways a far-right victory could change Europe as a whole.
1. The attitude towards supporting Ukraine may change
The victory of the far-right may change France’s attitude to support for Ukraine.
Prime ministerial candidate of the national coalition Jordan Bardella has said he’s on Ukraine’s side, but wants to avoid a full-blown rift with Moscow.
Bardella has a more moderate approach to supporting Ukraine than President Macron, who has recently become more active in supporting Ukraine and announced that his support for Ukraine “has no borders”.
At the beginning of the year, Macron also hinted at sending French troops to Ukraine. Bardella opposes this plan. Unlike Macron, Bardella also does not want to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles that could hit Russian soil.
Macron’s speeches have been seen above all as a message to Russia that Europe stands united in support of Ukraine. So this may change if Bardella becomes prime minister.
Academy researcher Timo Miettinen according to him, the victory of the far-right can make it difficult to approve the aid packages in the parliament.
– France may not have been the most active supporter of Ukraine, but it possesses significant weapons and is the EU’s key nuclear weapon state. If Macron does not get the aid packages passed in the parliament, this will weaken the support for Ukraine.
The victory of the national coalition would also be a kind of victory for Russia, as the party has historically had close relations with Moscow.
Some years ago Le Pen openly declared his admiration President of Russia Vladimir Putin.
Le Pen’s party was too until last year millions in debt to a Russian bank, from which he got a loan for campaign financing for the 2015 regional elections. The party cleared the last loan installment in the fall of 2023.
2. The economic situation in France affects the entire euro area
France is one of the largest euro countries and the second largest economic area in the EU, reminds Danske Bank’s chief analyst Minna Kuusisto.
– How the French economy is doing affects the entire euro area.
France’s public finances are not in good shape either. Last week, the country was subject to the EU’s deficit procedure, as its public finance deficit last year was one of the largest in the euro area, at 5.5 percent.
The economic program of Le Pen’s party does not look favorable in terms of balancing the public finances, as the party intends to increase public spending even more.
As one economic reform, Bardella has hinted at canceling the pension reform that Macron passed last year. At that time, the retirement age rose from 62 to 64.
The party also promises to calculate the value added tax on energy with a heavy hand. The reform aims to improve the purchasing power of the French, which has been one of the central themes of the elections.
According to Kuusisto, the risk is that the indebtedness cannot be turned into a decline and the deficit will continue to swell. From Europe’s point of view, the key thing is how serious Le Pen’s party is with its economic policy program.
– At worst, the reforms can lead to significant economic effects and, above all, a decrease in market confidence, says Kuusisto.
Worst case scenarios predict that the victory of the far-right will even lead to a euro crisis like 2010. At that time, due to economic difficulties, several euro area countries had to apply for financial support from the EU and other euro area countries.
The market reacted immediately after the dissolution of the parliament, when the CAC 40 index of the Paris stock exchange started to fall. Minna Kuusisto believes that market discipline is biting.
– The market does give feedback to politicians very quickly, and that’s why I wouldn’t be so worried about Le Pen’s economic policy.
3. The future of the entire EU may be at stake
Le Pen’s victory could fundamentally shake the entire European Union.
France is one of the largest member countries and a professor at the University of Turku by Louis Clerc according to what happens in the big member states reflects on the entire EU region.
President Macron has become known for his pro-EU stance and has been an advocate for a strong Europe.
The national coalition, on the other hand, is traditionally known as an EU-critical party, whose policy aimed for years at breaking away from the euro and the EU, or “frexit”. However, Marine Le Pen softened her most critical EU positions in the 2022 presidential election.
Professor of geopolitics at Skema Business School by Frédéric Munier think that the victory of Le Pen’s party would be a disaster for the entire EU.
– Le Pen’s party can make it difficult for the commission to make decisions and at worst not pay its membership fees. It would be a kind of indirect frexit and a very bad thing, because right now we need a united and strong Europe more than ever.
4. The value atmosphere turns sharply to the right
The election victory of the national coalition would turn the values climate in France and the whole of Europe clearly more to the right, also in matters of values.
Le Pen’s party wants to pursue a stricter immigration policy and weaken social security for immigrants. However, many of its proposed reforms would be against the constitution, but the party has stated that it is ready to change the constitution if necessary.
There are also organizations promoting the rights of sexual and gender minorities and women expressed their concerns about the rise to power of the far-right and its effects on, for example, abortion rights, transgender rights and same-sex adoption rights in France.
Jordan Bardella has also hinted at the idea that, for example, those related to defense and security to strategic government posts only French citizens would be selected. This would also exclude dual citizens.
According to geopolitics professor Frédéric Munier, the victory of the far-right would lead Europe towards a more authoritarian and populist form of government.