Several sociological characteristics mark the voters of the list led by Jordan Bardella in the European elections, which we find in the opinion surveys for the legislative elections. They were urgently examined by political scientists panicked at having missed, or at least neglected, this profound change in the nationalist electorate, when weak signals could have made it possible to detect them.
The first, the most striking, is that the young electorate is mobilizing in favor of the person of Jordan Bardella much more than it did for Marine Le Pen. Any high school or higher education teacher can easily see this: young people talk about Bardella, exchange ideas about Bardella, particularly through social networks. Several teachers with whom I spoke are surprised by the success of the young MEP and think they understand it through his use of social networks which the older ones never consult. We obviously think of TikTok, a platform on which Bardella has 1.7 million followers with a particularly high engagement rate. We are also surprised by the power of the algorithm which locks in anyone who wants to watch a video of an RN leader out of curiosity; he or she will subsequently be overwhelmed by it.
Bardella as Boyard
This use of social networks does not explain everything. The way Bardella speaks is truly that of a young man of 28 years old. He does not seek to imitate older politicians as Gabriel Attal, Marion Maréchal or other elected officials who started in politics very early were able to do. When we interact with young people between 18 and 25 years old, particular expressions often come up, a rather rapid speaking rhythm, a way of cutting off speech too, which correspond to the lexical and stylistic background that we often hear among young people. . This is something that Bardella shares with Louis Boyard, although he is very politically opposed, who uses his sense of response, exaggeration and excess to address a young audience who seem to understand this way of doing things more. .
Bardella, when we listen to his “reals” (very short videos on social networks), talks about immigration and delinquency as Marine le Pen could do, but he does it through a tool where he is very comfortable, even feeling capable of clashing with very well-known YouTubers without coming across as someone completely out of date, like Emmanuel Macron who also tried to invite McFly and Carlito to the Elysée without generating a movement of sympathy. Thus, young people, who in ordinary times moved away from the RN, seem to be moving closer and closer to it since 18-35 year olds vote as much for the far-right party as the rest of French voters.
FN much more virilistic
The other spectacular progression in favor of the RN is the women’s vote. While the National Rally was a deliberately masculine party, we see that the women’s vote jumped by 13 points compared to the last European election and now exceeds that of men, which has barely changed.
If we go back even further, Jean-Marie Le Pen had collected 26% of male votes in 2002, against 11% of female votes, this trend is, according to Ifop, now 32% of female votes against 31% of male votes. The male vote has, in twenty-two years, only progressed by 5 points while that of women has been multiplied by 3. Here again, the reasons are multiple and are due to a combined effect of the ways that Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella address women, whereas the FN was much more virile in its way of expressing itself politically.
Whatever explanations one may provide, the figures are cruel: the electorate that has changed is that of young people and women, and that of men over 40 has hardly changed.
It is clear that sociologically, those who run the country economically and politically are no longer those on whom the parties rely to move the lines. The most spectacular electoral surprises come from the categories which, if they do not weigh as much as they should in French society, intend to do so with all their weight in the choice of the future government.
*Arnaud Lacheret is a professor at Skema Business School. He notably published The integrated And Women are the future of the Gulf published by Bord de l’eau.
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