Only four days left before the legislative elections and the polls remain on the same line since the start of the campaign: participation should be significantly increasing. Between 60 and 64% compared to 48% during the previous legislative elections, two years ago. Around ten points difference, then.
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On the square in front of this Parisian station, there are many more voters than abstainers. Michèle and Fatoumata are certain that they will go to the polls: “ I will definitely go to vote because I don’t want either the right or the left, or the extreme right or the extreme left. This is the last solution so that the extreme right does not pass », they respond to the microphone of Victor Willaume.
Block the National Rally (RN) or for others, put it in power. The issues are seen as crucial in this election, confirms political scientist Benjamin Morel: “ This is an issue that is seen as important by the left-wing electorate, because it involves blocking the RN. And it is an important issue for the RN electorate because it is about winning. » These are the two groups which take advantage of the popular and abstentionist electorate, according to the political scientist.
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More than the outgoing majority or the left-wing coalition, the increased participation could benefit the National Rally more. The National Rally has a more diffuse electorate, which can make the difference over a larger portion of the territorycontinues Benjamin Morel. The left can also benefit from very strong mobilization but it is more concentrated geographically, in city centers and suburbs. »
And to summarize: to win the elections, it is better to achieve 51% in ten constituencies than 80% in just one.
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